In Week 48 of 2024, the electricity market prices in Southeast Europe (SEE) presented a mixed outlook, with southern markets seeing price increases, while northern markets experienced price decreases. The rise in demand, higher gas and CO2 emission allowance prices, and a reduction in wind energy production across most markets contributed to these fluctuations. While Greece and Italy saw electricity prices increase, markets like Serbia and Bulgaria registered the largest price declines.
Serbia and Bulgaria experienced significant drops, with prices falling by -16.12% and -12.19% respectively. Romania and Hungary also saw price reductions, dropping by -12.23% and -12.19% respectively. Greece and Italy were the exceptions, with price hikes of 3.43% and 1.75%, respectively, driven by rising demand and market conditions.
In Central Europe, weekly average spot electricity prices followed an upward trend in Week 48, surging in all markets except Switzerland. Most markets recorded prices above €100/MWh, with France being the only market below this threshold. The increase in electricity prices was linked to a reduction in wind energy production, allowing gas to push European electricity prices above €100/MWh. Prices ranged from €98/MWh to €138/MWh, with Slovakia having the highest prices at €137.61/MWh, an increase of 6.86% from Week 47, while France had the lowest price at €97.71/MWh, up by 10.44%.
In the southern part of Europe, electricity prices were generally above €100/MWh, except in Türkiye, where prices were the lowest at €73.74/MWh. Croatia, at €131.31/MWh, was the second cheapest market in the SEE region. Serbia recorded the highest price for the week at €138.81/MWh, a decrease of -16.12% compared to the previous week, while Romania was the second most expensive market at €138.74/MWh.
In Week 48, electricity demand in SEE countries showed a mixed trend. Some countries, including Italy, Greece, Türkiye, and Bulgaria, saw increases in demand, while others, like Romania, Hungary, Serbia, and Croatia, experienced a drop in demand. Average temperatures across the region decreased, with the weather turning colder and leading to a 3.29% rise in electricity demand in the SEE region compared to Week 47. Specifically, Italy, Greece, Türkiye, and Bulgaria recorded higher demand, while Romania, Hungary, Serbia, and Croatia saw a decline.
Renewable energy output in the SEE region saw a significant decline during Week 48. Wind energy generation dropped by -37.4%, totaling 1,420.76 GWh, with Türkiye and Bulgaria seeing the largest declines of -51.1% and -50.8%, respectively. Croatia, however, saw a surge in wind generation by 91.8%. Solar energy output also decreased by -11.0%, totaling 607.39 GWh, with Bulgaria and Greece experiencing the largest decreases. Türkiye, on the other hand, posted a 17.7% increase in solar output.
Hydropower output in the region increased by 8.98%, reaching 2,221.60 GWh, with Türkiye and Serbia seeing the highest increases of 23.71% and 19.55%, respectively. However, Croatia, Italy, and Greece experienced decreases in hydropower generation.
Thermal power generation in SEE rose by 9.29%, driven by a 17.38% increase in gas-fired generation, which amounted to 5,663.43 GWh. Coal-fired generation decreased by -0.98%, totaling 3,759.40 GWh. Türkiye and Bulgaria both saw a reduction in coal and gas-fired generation, while Italy experienced increases in both, particularly in coal and gas-fired generation.
Regarding cross-border electricity trade, net imports fell by -1.39% in Week 48 compared to the previous week, totaling 1,430.84 GWh. Electricity exports from the SEE region dropped by -45.2%, totaling 170.00 GWh, while imports decreased by -9.1%, totaling 1,600.84 GWh. Bulgaria and Serbia saw the largest declines in net imports, with decreases of -40.39% and -35.10%, respectively. Meanwhile, Greece and Türkiye were net exporters but also recorded lower exports, with decreases of -69.83% and -0.55%, respectively.
