On March 17, power prices across Southeast Europe and Hungary saw a significant increase due to reduced import flows and diminished wind generation, which tightened the supply-demand balance in the region. This price hike coincided with a rebound in electricity demand at the beginning of the week.
Day-ahead baseload prices experienced notable rises on major exchanges: Hungary’s HUPX reached €137.27/MWh, an increase of €26.5 from the previous day; Romania’s OPCOM hit €126.24/MWh (+€22.5); and Bulgaria’s IBEX climbed to €121.31/MWh (+€20.9). In the western Balkans, Croatia’s CROPEX rose to €130.45/MWh (+€30.5), while Slovenia’s BSP increased to €131.29/MWh (+€31.6). Serbia’s SEEPEX traded at €109.53/MWh, up by €13.8.
Albania recorded the most substantial price movement, with ALPEX surging to €175.43/MWh (+€96), driven by ongoing hydro volatility and tighter balancing conditions across the region.
The uptick in prices was supported by a marked increase in regional electricity consumption, which rose to 34,462 MW (+2,380 MW day-on-day) as normal work activities resumed, despite mild temperatures around 8–9°C that typically would not spur high energy use.
Import availability took a hit, with net imports into the SEE-Hungary region falling to -1,029 MW—a decrease compared to previous days—as flows from Austria and Slovakia dropped by 658 MW. This reduction in cross-border inflows diminished system flexibility and increased reliance on domestic generation sources.
Total generation in the region saw a modest rise to 32,385 MW (+740 MW), primarily due to a recovery in hydro output (+871 MW) and increased thermal generation from coal and gas plants. However, this was countered by a significant decline in wind production, which fell by 558 MW day-on-day, limiting renewable contributions during critical hours. Solar output also decreased due to seasonal variations.
The decline in wind generation has emerged as a crucial factor influencing market dynamics, particularly during evening peak hours when solar generation is lower. Price curves for intraday trading across HUPX, BSP, and OPCOM indicated pronounced peaks during these times, with hourly prices surpassing €200/MWh in several markets.
Interconnection dynamics also played a role; the Hungary–Germany price spread narrowed significantly to around €11/MWh, reducing incentives for arbitrage from Western Europe while coinciding with lower physical flows into the region that further intensified local price pressures.
In fuel markets, there was limited respite as Austrian gas hub prices rose to €52.12/MWh (+€1.5), while carbon pricing remained stable—keeping marginal costs for gas- and coal-fired plants elevated.
Cross-border flow patterns revealed an ongoing reliance on intra-SEE balancing mechanisms, with stronger flows from Romania and Bulgaria towards neighboring markets contrasting with weakened traditional west-to-east imports. This situation highlights persistent structural constraints regarding interconnection capacities and market coupling.
Looking forward, market participants anticipate that prices will remain elevated in the short term due to heightened sensitivity of system balance to fluctuations in renewable outputs and cross-border flows. Any further decline in wind generation or additional constraints on imports could maintain upward pressure on prices during peak demand periods; however, stronger solar output later in the week may provide some relief.
The current market landscape reflects a tightening regional system where even minor changes in generation or import levels can provoke significant price reactions throughout Southeast European power markets.
