In 2025, Romania and Bulgaria emerged as significant players in the electricity trading landscape of Southeast Europe, achieving notable scale in spot market activities that their neighbors struggled to replicate. Both countries saw monthly trading volumes on their respective exchanges reach terawatt-hour levels, establishing them as key price discovery mechanisms for the eastern Balkans. However, this impressive turnover belied a critical shortcoming: neither market was adept at absorbing risk effectively, leading to a disconnect between efficient pricing and risk hedging capabilities.
Romania’s OPCOM operated one of the most active day-ahead electricity markets in the region. Throughout 2025, it consistently recorded monthly traded volumes exceeding 1.4 to 1.6 TWh, bolstered by a diverse energy generation portfolio that included nuclear, hydroelectric, wind, and gas sources. This variety not only contributed to credible price signals but also positioned OPCOM as a reference point for traders from Bulgaria, Serbia, and Greece who relied on its prices to gauge regional market fundamentals.
On the Bulgarian side, IBEX further enhanced market liquidity with monthly trading volumes often reaching between 2.2 and 2.4 TWh. Additionally, intraday trading on IBEX surpassed 600 GWh per month, making it an attractive platform for short-term optimization strategies such as hydro balancing and cross-border arbitrage with Greece and Romania.
Despite this robust spot trading environment, both OPCOM and IBEX struggled to develop forward hedging instruments. The futures markets available were characterized by low liquidity and transparency issues; open interest was limited, tenor coverage was inconsistent, and execution capacity fell short for larger industrial or utility participants. Consequently, many entities turned to bilateral over-the-counter (OTC) agreements for forward risk management linked to OPCOM or IBEX prices.
These bilateral agreements provided a mechanism for locking in prices indexed to familiar spot rates but came with hidden costs. Credit risk premiums reflected the financial health of counterparties rather than overall market liquidity. Additionally, liquidity premiums compensated sellers for exposure that could not be hedged effectively while basis risk premiums accounted for challenges in dynamically offsetting positions.
By mid-2025, these costs became evident as industrial consumers in Romania and Bulgaria found themselves paying hedge prices that were 3 to 6 €/MWh higher than their counterparts in Germany or Austria—this disparity stemmed not just from generation expenses but also from local market structures’ inability to manage risk efficiently.
The situation presented a paradox: while OPCOM and IBEX generated some of the clearest spot price signals in Southeast Europe, these signals were not convertible into effective hedging tools. As a result, risk was largely displaced towards HUPX and more established European futures markets where greater liquidity existed.
As 2025 drew to a close, stakeholders recognized this critical distinction—OPCOM and IBEX served primarily as price formation hubs rather than effective hedging platforms. Their strengths lay in providing transparency and immediacy rather than facilitating long-term risk management solutions. Without the development of robust forward markets featuring multi-tenor depth and anonymous clearing processes in Romania and Bulgaria, this division is likely to persist along with embedded risk premiums influencing electricity pricing across the eastern Balkans.
