Economy and Energy Minister István Kapitány said Hungary should be able to meet demand without Russian gas by October 2027, aligning with the European Union’s phase-out deadline. He added that existing interconnections and alternative supply sources should cover volumes needed for the market. The statement represents a material change for one of Central Europe’s most Russia-dependent gas markets.
Hungary has traditionally received most Russian volumes through TurkStream and the Balkan route via Serbia. Kapitány said replacing those flows would raise the value of alternative connections involving Romania, Croatia and Slovakia. The shift could also involve LNG arriving through Greece and moving north through Bulgaria.
Regional pipeline flows and LNG gateway roles
The expected impact extends beyond Hungary’s procurement decisions, with potential changes to pipeline utilisation across Southeast Europe. Romania is preparing for higher domestic production, while Greece has expanded its role as an LNG gateway. Bulgaria and Romania are increasingly carrying south-to-north flows towards Central Europe.
Croatia’s Krk LNG terminal and the Adria system could gain similar strategic importance as supply routes are rebalanced. Hungary has also opened discussions over maximising use of Croatia’s Adria oil pipeline. This was described as part of efforts to reduce Russian exposure in both gas and crude.
Capacity limits on alternative deliveries
The main commercial issue is whether alternative routes can deliver enough volume at competitive prices. Romania’s Arad-Szeged connection with Hungary has already been operating close to capacity during periods of strong northbound flows. As a result, higher Romanian production or additional Greek LNG would not automatically increase Hungarian supply unless transmission capacity can accommodate it.
The same capacity constraint applies to Croatian routes, where physical diversification depends on available throughput. Infrastructure can diversify supply, but pipeline tariffs, congestion and LNG pricing determine whether alternatives remain commercially attractive. Hungary’s shift could therefore support investment in additional interconnector capacity and compressor upgrades across the region.
Implications for Serbia and cross-border competition
The change could also affect competition between Greece and Croatia as southern LNG entry points. For Serbia, the implications are described as particularly important because the country sits on the main TurkStream corridor delivering Russian gas towards Hungary. Reduced Hungarian demand for that route could lower its strategic transit value while increasing pressure on Serbia to diversify supply.
The regional gas market is therefore moving towards a more complex structure in which security is less dependent on a single supplier and a single corridor. Instead, it increasingly depends on whether multiple sources can compete through limited cross-border infrastructure. Hungary’s October 2027 target sets a deadline for this transition, .
