Hungary is conducting a review of the planned Paks II nuclear expansion, with a decision expected by the end of 2026. The assessment is being carried out as more than 8 GW of solar changes the country’s generation mix. Energy Minister István Kapitány said the government expects to complete the review before year-end.
Paks I life extension considered alongside Paks II review
The Paks II assessment is taking place while Hungary also considers extending the operating life of the existing Paks I reactors by another 20 years from 2032. The government’s review therefore intersects with questions about how long nuclear capacity would remain in service. The move also affects how Hungary’s power system would be configured over the coming decades.
Solar growth is reshaping expectations for future market conditions. Solar now dominates new capacity additions, and during sunny periods wholesale prices can collapse or turn negative. After sunset, the market tightens sharply, changing price patterns across the day.
Flexibility needs and storage gaps affect nuclear economics
This shift can influence the economics of adding additional inflexible baseload generation. The impact depends on whether electricity demand, storage and exports expand quickly enough to absorb daytime surpluses. Hungary has acknowledged that storage deployment remains insufficient relative to solar growth.
Large reactors can provide stable output, but they have limited ability to respond economically to extreme intraday price swings. Batteries, pumped storage and flexible generation address a different requirement by shifting electricity between low- and high-price hours. If Paks I operates longer while storage expands, Hungary may have more time to reassess how much additional baseload capacity the system actually needs.
Regional implications for power flows in Southeast Europe
The outcome of the year-end process is expected to have regional consequences for electricity trade. Hungary is described as one of Southeast Europe’s most important electricity importers and trading hubs. A large new nuclear fleet could reduce long-term imports and potentially increase exports toward Serbia, Romania, Croatia, Slovenia and Slovakia.
A delay or redesign of Paks II would instead preserve greater regional import demand. The Hungarian market is indirectly competed for by Serbian hydro and wind, Romanian nuclear and renewables, Croatian hydro, and regional gas-fired generation. The year-end decision will not resolve every question around Paks II, but it will clarify how Hungary’s generation strategy is being reassessed.
