Recent regulatory advancements indicate that Montenegro’s electricity market is on a path toward greater integration with regional energy markets. The anticipated completion of the Electricity Integration Package by February 2026 will enable Montenegro to join the Single Day-Ahead Coupling (SDAC) and Single Intraday Coupling (SIDC). This transition is contingent upon formal verification, but it signals a significant shift from the country’s historically isolated market.
Traditionally, Montenegro’s BELEN has been characterized by limited liquidity and substantial price discounts. As of 24 February, BELEN’s base price was recorded at 40.00 EUR/MWh, which is approximately 75 EUR/MWh lower than prices in Hungary. Such disparities are seen as unsustainable in a coupled market context, leading to increased speculative interest aimed at future convergence.
The introduction of market coupling is expected to enhance liquidity within BELEN by broadening participation and facilitating implicit capacity allocation. A deeper order book is likely to mitigate execution risks while fostering tighter bidding practices. Analysts predict that average prices may increase as risk premiums decrease, despite a potential reduction in extreme volatility.
The impact of intraday coupling is also anticipated to be significant. This mechanism will enable continuous cross-border trading, allowing market participants to adjust for forecast errors in real time, thereby minimizing imbalance exposure and supporting more proactive day-ahead trading strategies.
However, experts caution that the coupling process may also bring about increased volatility. As Montenegro integrates further with regional markets, it may become more susceptible to price fluctuations originating from Italy and Hungary, particularly during periods of regional stress. Thus, this transition represents a recalibration of pricing dynamics rather than a stabilization of the market.
