Southeastern European day-ahead electricity markets showed sharp price divergence on Thursday, with Hungary and Serbia trading above €260/MWh as stronger demand, tighter regional supply and continued reliance on imports pushed prices higher. At the same time, electricity prices declined across Greece, Albania, Montenegro and much of the western Balkans.
Hungary’s HUPX day-ahead baseload price increased by €10.8 to €263.21/MWh, the highest level among the markets covered. Serbia’s SEEPEX recorded an even stronger move, rising €49.2 to €260.63/MWh, leaving the Serbian market just €2.58/MWh below Hungary.
Romania and Bulgaria also remained among the region’s more expensive markets, with OPCOM reaching €251.53/MWh and IBEX €250.17/MWh. North Macedonia settled at €249.48/MWh, while Montenegro, Croatia, Albania and Slovenia recorded prices between approximately €229/MWh and €239/MWh.
Greece moved in the opposite direction, with HENEX baseload falling €39.3 to €201.29/MWh. This created a price gap of nearly €62/MWh between Greece and Hungary. Germany recorded an even steeper decline to €148.61/MWh, leaving Hungary at a €114.60/MWh premium over Germany.
The unusually wide price differences point to physical power balances, generation availability and transmission constraints as key drivers of the market. Fuel prices, by comparison, remained relatively stable or declined.
Regional imports increase as demand rises
Combined electricity consumption across Hungary and the SEE region was forecast at 32,624 MW, an increase of 1,256 MW, or around 4%, from Wednesday. Regional net imports climbed by 1,296 MW to 4,713 MW, covering roughly 14% of total demand.
Imports from the Austrian-Slovak core into Hungary and SEE rose by 964 MW to 4,410 MW, while flows from Italy increased by 283 MW to 383 MW.
Renewable generation also shifted during the day. Forecast solar output declined by 571 MW to 3,735 MW, while wind generation increased by 409 MW to 3,100 MW.
Total regional generation remained broadly stable at around 27.9 GW, well below demand of more than 32.6 GW. The resulting supply gap increased dependence on imported electricity. At the same time, hydro generation had already declined by more than 600 MW compared with the previous day.
The combination of higher demand, lower solar availability and limited additional domestic generation helped push northern and central Balkan prices higher, even as German electricity prices fell sharply.
The resulting market structure once again demonstrates how electricity prices can diverge significantly between geographically close markets when cross-border transmission capacity is insufficient to fully balance regional supply and demand.
Hungary emerges as the main regional pressure point
Hungary remained at the centre of the regional imbalance. Electricity consumption increased to around 5,235 MW, while domestic generation was only approximately 2,536 MW. This left average net imports at about 2,699 MW, meaning imports covered more than half of Hungarian demand.
Hungary was drawing substantial volumes from Austria and Slovakia while also supplying neighbouring SEE markets. Average commercial flows reached around 1,307 MW from Austria into Hungary and 1,822 MW from Slovakia into Hungary.
At the same time, Hungary exported approximately 614 MW towards Romania and 526 MW towards Croatia. Serbia also supplied Hungary, with average Serbia-to-Hungary flows of around 642 MW.
The widening €114.60/MWh Hungary-Germany spread is particularly significant given the scale of Central European imports. It suggests that available interconnection capacity is already being heavily utilised, but remains insufficient to eliminate the scarcity premium in Hungary and surrounding markets.
Germany’s day-ahead price fell by more than €63/MWh while Hungary moved higher, providing a clear indication of regional congestion and market decoupling.
Serbia sees a sharp price rebound
Serbia recorded one of the largest daily price increases in the region. SEEPEX rose from €211.4/MWh to €260.63/MWh, an increase of more than 23%.
Serbian peak electricity averaged €281.9/MWh, compared with €239.4/MWh during off-peak hours. The maximum hourly price reached €343.4/MWh.
Despite relatively strong domestic generation, Serbia remained a net importer. Consumption was forecast at approximately 3,928 MW, compared with generation of around 3,220 MW, leaving a deficit of roughly 708 MW.
However, Serbia’s geographical position created a more complex trading pattern. Electricity was flowing into the country from Bulgaria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia and Montenegro, while significant volumes were simultaneously moving north from Serbia towards Hungary.
Average Serbia-Hungary commercial exports reached approximately 642 MW, while Bulgaria supplied around 338 MW and Bosnia and Herzegovina around 345 MW.
This left Serbia operating both as a deficit market and an important regional transit route, linking Balkan electricity supplies with the higher-priced Hungarian market.
Greece moves into a significant discount
Greece provided the clearest contrast to the tight conditions in Hungary and Serbia.
Greek electricity consumption remained broadly stable at around 5,282 MW, while generation was forecast at approximately 6,441 MW. This resulted in around 1,159 MW of net exports.
The surplus pushed HENEX baseload down to €201.29/MWh. Hourly prices showed an even wider range, with the minimum falling to just €1/MWh and the maximum reaching €290/MWh.
The very low midday price is consistent with a period of strong solar generation creating a temporary surplus, followed by tighter conditions during the evening hours.
The resulting Greek-Hungarian price difference of almost €62/MWh highlights the value of cross-border capacity. However, the persistence of the spread also demonstrates that transmission constraints continue to prevent cheaper southern European electricity from fully reaching higher-priced Central European markets.
Western Balkan markets move lower
Montenegro’s BELEN price declined by €15.3 to €238.93/MWh, leaving it more than €24/MWh below Hungary. Peak electricity averaged €258.5/MWh, while off-peak prices averaged €219.3/MWh.
Montenegro’s domestic power balance was relatively close to equilibrium, with consumption at around 340 MW, generation near 311 MW and net imports of approximately 28 MW.
Despite its small domestic deficit, Montenegro continued to serve an important role in regional power flows. Average electricity flows towards Serbia reached around 174 MW, while the Montenegro-Italy interconnection recorded predominantly northbound flows during the day.
Croatia declined to €234.06/MWh, Slovenia to €228.63/MWh, while Albania recorded one of the region’s largest declines, falling €51.6 to €233.99/MWh.
The western Balkan markets therefore remained significantly below the prices recorded in Serbia and Hungary, despite continued import dependence in several individual countries.
Gas and carbon prices offer little explanation
The sharp electricity-price divergence was not accompanied by a comparable increase in gas prices.
CEGH Austrian gas fell €1.2 to €89.63/MWh, while the Greek gas indicator declined €4.6 to €79.19/MWh. EU carbon allowances edged up only €0.3 to €85.91 per tonne.
This supports the view that Thursday’s electricity-price movements were driven primarily by power-system conditions, including demand, renewable generation, domestic availability and transmission congestion, rather than a sudden increase in marginal fuel costs.
Forward electricity markets also continued to reflect expectations of tight conditions in Hungary. Hungarian Week 44 and Week 45 contracts were both quoted around €263/MWh, while November electricity rose €6 to €250/MWh. The Hungarian calendar contract increased to €170.50/MWh.
These forward prices indicate that the Hungarian premium is not expected to disappear immediately.
Transmission congestion remains the central signal
The most important feature of the October 22 market was therefore not simply Hungary reaching €263/MWh or Serbia recording a €49/MWh daily increase. It was the growing geographical separation between electricity prices.
Germany traded below €150/MWh, Greece around €201/MWh and Italy near €225/MWh, while Hungary and Serbia approached €260/MWh. At the same time, Central European imports into Hungary and SEE were already exceeding 4.4 GW.
For traders, generators and storage operators, such spreads increase the value of flexibility and cross-border capacity. Battery storage, dispatchable generation, hydro resources and transmission rights become increasingly valuable when neighbouring markets can differ by tens or even more than €100/MWh during the same delivery day.
The launch of the common ADEX intraday continuous trading environment for Slovenia, Hungary and Serbia should support more efficient short-term trading and balancing between the three markets. However, improved market infrastructure cannot by itself resolve physical transmission bottlenecks.
The October 22 session highlights a broader trend across Southeast Europe: greater market integration is making regional price signals increasingly visible, while limited transmission capacity is preventing those differences from being fully arbitraged away. Until additional interconnections, storage capacity and flexible generation become available, periods of strong demand are likely to continue producing significant price spreads between Central Europe and the Balkans.
