Romanian gas producer Romgaz has kept its BBB- rating, with a negative outlook, as expected growth from the Neptun Deep offshore gas development is weighed against heavy investment, regulated prices and risks linked to Romania’s sovereign credit profile. Fitch Ratings affirmed the issuer rating and assessed Romgaz’s standalone credit profile at bb+, one notch lower, reflecting expectations of state support.
Neptun Deep to lift production
The largest expected change to Romgaz’s operating profile is the Black Sea Neptun Deep project, which it is developing jointly with OMV Petrom. Production is scheduled to start in 2027, with output expected to stabilise at around 8 billion cubic metres a year.
Romgaz’s production could consequently increase from about 86,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2025 to roughly 160,000 boe/day. The rise is expected to more than offset declining output from mature onshore fields and strengthen Romania’s position among European gas producers.
The company could also benefit when the long-delayed Iernut gas-fired power plant is completed. The plant is currently expected to enter service in the first quarter of 2027, giving Romgaz greater exposure to electricity-market revenues and balancing services as intermittent renewable generation expands in Romania.
Investment and regulatory risks
Fitch identified substantial credit risks, including Romgaz’s exposure to government pricing decisions for much of its existing production. Household gas prices remain regulated until March 2027. The company also has a heavy investment programme, operates in a single country and has relatively limited diversification.
Further rating pressure could arise if Romania’s sovereign credit profile weakens, government support declines, major projects face significant delays or net debt rises materially above twice EBITDA. An upgrade appears unlikely in the near term unless Romgaz achieves substantially greater diversification or materially higher production while maintaining financial discipline.
Romgaz’s credit profile is increasingly tied to project execution. Neptun Deep could make the company a much larger producer, but it must manage the associated financing burden without allowing leverage to put its investment-grade rating at risk.
