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Higher solar and wind output reshape SEE day-ahead power prices in Week 24

Renewables were the central price-forming story in Southeast Europe during Week 24. Across the analysed markets, combined wind and solar generation rose to 3.64 TWh, up 518.6 GWh or 16.6% week on week. That increase came as regional demand also rose, creating a market in which higher consumption did not automatically translate into higher power prices.

Wind made the largest contribution. Regional wind generation climbed by 308.4 GWh, or 28.1%, to 1.40 TWh. Solar generation rose by 210.2 GWh, or 10.4%, to 2.23 TWh. The result was a stronger renewable supply cushion during the opening phase of the summer demand season.

Türkiye was the standout market, with total variable renewable generation up 67.1% after a powerful rebound in wind output. Serbia also posted a strong renewable increase of 76.8%, while Hungary rose 21.2%, Bulgaria 12.8%, Romania 6.1% and Italy 6.1%. Greece had only a modest total increase of 1.9%, because a 22.8% rise in solar output was partly offset by a 31.4% decline in wind generation.

Croatia moved against the regional pattern. Its variable renewable output fell 35.9%, driven by weaker wind conditions. That made Croatia more dependent on hydropower, which rose 43.5%, giving the market a different balancing structure from most neighbouring systems.

The broader price effect was visible across the region. Most SEE markets traded lower despite rising demand. Serbia fell to €78.22/MWh, Bulgaria to €93.58/MWh, Croatia to €92.02/MWh, Romania to €97.38/MWh and Hungary to €98.71/MWh. The week confirms that wind and solar are no longer marginal additions in SEE price formation. They are becoming the first line of volatility, shaping spreads, dispatch order and trading opportunities before thermal or hydro constraints take over.

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