Greece and Bulgaria offered a different market story in Week 25. While Italy, Hungary, Croatia, Romania and Serbia moved higher, both Greece and Bulgaria recorded lower weekly day-ahead prices. The reason was stronger renewable availability, especially solar, combined with export capacity that allowed both markets to play a more active regional balancing role.
Greece averaged around €85.50/MWh, down more than 6% week-on-week. Bulgaria averaged around €87.58/MWh, also lower by more than 6%. Both markets were priced below Croatia, Hungary, Romania and Italy, despite the wider summer tightening across parts of SEE. This shows that solar generation can still create powerful short-term price relief, particularly during weeks when daylight production aligns with demand and export flows.
The Greek market was helped by a strong increase in variable renewable output. Wind and solar generation rose, while Greece deepened its net export position. Gas-fired generation still increased, but renewable production helped prevent a sharper price rise. Greece therefore behaved as a lower-price exporter rather than as a market pulled fully into the Italian premium zone.
Bulgaria’s case was even more striking because domestic demand rose sharply, yet prices still fell. Strong solar output and stronger export availability offset the demand increase. Bulgaria expanded exports significantly, reinforcing its role as one of the key swing markets in SEE. When domestic generation is strong, Bulgaria can soften prices around the region. When output tightens or demand rises further, it can quickly reconnect to Romania, Serbia and Greece.
The broader message is that solar is changing the shape of SEE power markets, but not eliminating volatility. Solar can break the price curve during daylight hours, particularly in Greece and Bulgaria, where installed capacity and irradiance are increasingly important. But the effect is uneven. It reduces daytime prices more than evening prices. That means the market is becoming more intraday-driven, with lower midday pricing and stronger value in evening ramp periods.
This creates a clear investment signal. Solar projects are still valuable, but merchant revenue assumptions must become more sophisticated. Developers and lenders need to model capture prices, curtailment risk, balancing cost and co-location with batteries. A solar project that looks attractive on annual average prices may face lower realised revenues if too much production lands in low-price daylight periods.
For traders, Greece and Bulgaria are no longer only peripheral SEE markets. They are becoming price-shaping renewable hubs. Their solar output can influence neighbouring markets, export flows and intraday spreads. Week 25 showed that renewable production can temporarily detach parts of SEE from the higher regional band, but it also showed why flexibility and storage are becoming the next source of value.
