Electricity.Trade’s May 2026 gas-power analysis shows that European gas prices remained high enough to support wholesale electricity prices across Southeast Europe, even though gas markets eased from earlier peaks. The TTF front-month futures average stood at €47.26/MWh in May, compared with €44.78/MWh in April. Prices traded mostly within a €44–50/MWh range and reached a monthly high of €50.25/MWh on 18 May.
This level matters for power markets because gas still influences marginal pricing in several SEE systems, especially Italy, Greece, Romania and Hungary. Italy’s electricity mix included 34.07% gas, making it the clearest example of a market where gas prices continue to underpin the wholesale price floor. Greece also had a significant gas share of 28.11%, while Romania’s gas share reached 11.91% and gas-fired generation increased by 35.23% during the month. When gas remains expensive, even stronger renewables may not be enough to push monthly average power prices substantially lower.
The May gas market was shaped by supply risk and LNG flexibility. The report identifies geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the need to rebuild storage before winter, structural demand and weather volatility as supportive factors. At the same time, LNG imports remained strong enough to prevent a sharper price escalation. The report notes that new non-Gulf LNG supply increased by around 20% year on year, adding almost 8 bcm and offsetting roughly 90% of the disruption linked to reduced Gulf LNG flows.
For SEE electricity traders, this created a familiar but increasingly complex environment. Gas was not expensive enough to trigger a full crisis repricing, but it was expensive enough to keep the marginal cost of thermal generation elevated. This helped explain why Italy remained at €119.35/MWh, Romania rose to €109.56/MWh, Hungary to €106.51/MWhand Croatia to €103.58/MWh, despite the region’s stronger renewable output.
The second-half easing in gas prices also matters. It shows that supply concerns moderated as LNG inflows remained robust, but the market did not return to a low-cost fuel environment. Electricity.Trade should frame May as a month in which gas did not dominate headlines through a dramatic price spike, but quietly held the floor under power prices. In SEE, where gas plants often set or influence marginal pricing during tight hours, that floor is increasingly important for hedging, PPA pricing, industrial procurement and battery arbitrage assumptions.
