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Paks nuclear output cuts linked to low wholesale prices amid Hungary’s solar growth

Hungary’s Paks nuclear plant has reduced generation again after electricity could not be sold economically during low-price hours. The latest curtailment reflects how rising solar output is affecting the country’s baseload market profile.

Paks curtailment during low-price hours

Paks cut output by 92 MW between 11:45 and 16:00 on Sept. 27 due to market conditions. MVM has reported at least eight similar scheduled reductions since May. The record includes a 104 MW cut on Aug. 30 and a 69 MW reduction on Sept. 6.

These reductions are distinct from technical outages. They take place when wholesale prices fall sufficiently low that full nuclear production cannot be placed in the market economically. As a result, nuclear output is being adjusted in response to price signals rather than plant availability.

Solar surpluses and shifting operating patterns

Hungary now has more than 8 GW of solar, contributing to larger midday surpluses during sunny, low-demand periods. This development increases price cannibalisation beyond photovoltaic generators themselves. Nuclear plants, traditionally expected to run almost continuously, are increasingly being asked to respond to electricity-market conditions.

The pattern strengthens the case for batteries and other flexible demand that can absorb excess daytime power. Without sufficient storage, Hungary can face a combination of midday curtailments for low-cost generation and expensive evening scarcity after photovoltaic output drops.

Implications for Paks II and storage planning

The repeated Paks reductions point to a broader change in market structure described as moving beyond a simple generation shortfall. Hungary increasingly has too much electricity during some hours and insufficient flexibility during others. This tension is expected to be central to the government’s review of Paks II and its broader storage strategy.

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