TTF gas futures for February 2025 contracts on the ICE market declined in the second week of January 2025 compared to the previous week, although they remained above €45/MWh throughout the week. On Thursday, January 9, TTF gas futures hit their weekly minimum settlement price of €44.987/MWh, which was 1.3% lower than the previous day. Earlier, on Tuesday, January 7, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price of €47.474/MWh, which was 0.3% higher than the previous day, but 2.9% lower than the previous Tuesday, December 31.
The price decline from the 12-month highs observed at the beginning of the year was attributed to milder weather in the second week, stronger LNG flows to Europe, and a slower pace of gas withdrawals from storage sites, according to energy analysts. Higher gas prices in Europe make the continent a more attractive destination for LNG than Asia. As a result, some LNG tankers originally headed for Asia have redirected to Europe, according to ship-tracking data from LSEG.
Dutch settlement prices showed mixed movements on Wednesday, January 8, due to a supply outage in Norway, while forecasts for milder temperatures towards the end of the month were expected to increase gas availability. Norway’s Gassco, late on Tuesday, updated its plans for the Kollsnes plant, stating that the maintenance was expected to last until January 11.
Dutch wholesale gas prices fell on Friday, January 10, driven by mild and windy weather forecasts for the following week, as well as increased LNG flows to Europe due to higher European prices compared to Asia.
As of the last update, the one-month forward contract at TTF was trading at €47.420/MWh. On Friday, January 10, the U.S. imposed sanctions on Russia’s Portovaya LNG and Novatek’s Vysotsk LNG liquefaction plants, which together exported 3.1 bcm of LNG in 2024, nearly all of which went to Europe and Turkey. Several LNG vessels were also sanctioned, although larger LNG facilities, such as the Yamal LNG (17.4 million tonnes) and Sakhalin II LNG (10.4 million tonnes) terminals, were spared.
The Portovaya plant in northwestern Russia was among those listed in Washington’s most aggressive sanctions on Russian hydrocarbons to date. This marks the first active LNG export facility to be targeted. The U.S. aims to deter LNG buyers from accepting Russian LNG imports and paying Russia for the fuel, thereby curbing Moscow’s ability to fund its war in Ukraine.
Russia generates billions of dollars annually from its LNG exports, which reached a historic record of 46 bcm in 2024, according to Kpler data. The EU already prohibits imports of coal, seaborne crude oil, and refined oil products from Russia. However, Brussels has refrained from imposing direct sanctions on gas and LNG imports due to the EU’s dependence on Russian fuel.
