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Europe: Brent, TTF gas and EU CO2 futures fall amid supply, demand and geopolitical factors

During the second week of August, Brent crude oil Front Month futures on the ICE market remained below $67 per barrel. On August 13, they hit the week’s lowest settlement price of $65.63/bbl, the lowest since June 6. Prices rose on August 14 to the week’s maximum settlement of $66.84/bbl, following a 1.8% increase from the previous day, before closing at $65.85/bbl on Friday, August 15, down 1.1% from the previous Friday.

Downward pressure on Brent prices during the week was driven by concerns over demand and rising production. However, geopolitical risks, including threats from the U.S. president related to potential failed peace negotiations for Ukraine, contributed to the midweek price increase.

TTF gas Front Month futures on ICE reached a weekly maximum settlement of €33.00/MWh on Monday, August 11, before trending downward to a weekly minimum of €31.03/MWh on Friday, August 15, a 4.4% decline from the previous Friday and the lowest since July 11, 2024. Despite higher temperatures, ample supply and expectations of a peace agreement for Ukraine—which could increase global gas availability by lifting sanctions on Russian gas—exerted downward pressure on gas futures.

CO2 emission allowance futures on the EEX market for the December 2025 reference contract reached a weekly maximum of €72.34/t on Monday, August 11. Prices declined over most sessions, closing the week at a minimum of €70.68/t on Friday, August 15, down 3.5% from the previous Friday, AleaSoft reports.

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