Hungary’s rapid increase in solar generation has not eliminated reliance on imported electricity, according to economic research institute GKI. The institute said the outcome leaves companies exposed to higher power costs when domestic renewable output drops. The assessment points to a supply-demand timing gap between generation profiles and daily consumption needs.
Imports remain significant despite expanding solar
In 2025, imports supplied 37% of electricity consumption. GKI said imports were often delivered during higher-priced morning and evening periods. It added that surplus solar output was frequently exported during cheaper hours, highlighting the financial impact of limited storage and flexibility.
GKI said the mismatch affects industrial buyers because additional generation does not necessarily lower the cost of meeting demand across the full day. The institute warned that expanding solar capacity without complementary investment would leave Hungary exposed to expensive imports and gas-fired generation during periods of stronger demand and weaker renewable output.
Generation mix: solar growth, limited wind contribution
Solar production has more than quadrupled since 2020. GKI said it accounted for approximately 25% of domestic electricity generation in 2025. Nuclear remained the largest source at around 40%, followed by natural gas at 20%.
Wind supplied just 1.5%, reflecting limited growth in installed capacity since 2016. The analysis cited government plans to permit at least 4,000 MW of additional wind capacity during 2026–2030. GKI also warned that the delivery timetable could push substantial new output into later in the decade.
Electricity pricing pressures and Paks investment uncertainty
GKI identified business electricity costs as a competitiveness concern. It said network charges and costs linked to regulated household prices contribute to industrial electricity prices above the European average. The institute also highlighted investment risks tied to the Paks nuclear complex.
GKI said existing reactor licences expire between 2032 and 2037, while the completion timetable for Paks II remains uncertain. It added that continued operation of existing units would require approvals and equipment upgrades, and that delays affecting both new reactors and lifetime extensions could reduce domestic generation and increase import requirements.
Storage, grid build-out, and nuclear support priorities
The analysis called for investment in electricity storage and transmission infrastructure, alongside a broader generation mix. GKI also said measures are needed to sustain nuclear production. It described Hungary’s challenge as increasingly dependent on timing between daylight solar output and post-solar demand needs.
The institute said Hungary’s solar fleet can deliver large volumes during daylight hours, while industry still requires dependable and competitively priced electricity after that output declines.
