Central and Southeast Europe power prices diverge as Serbia lags at €86.78/MWh

On 5 June 2026, the regional power market saw a strong bullish correction, with Central European prices rebounding after the prior day’s low renewable output pricing event. Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and Greece converged around €114.7/MWh, while Serbia traded at €86.8/MWh, keeping an approximate €28/MWh discount to HUPX.

Day-ahead price moves across SEE

The largest day-ahead increase was recorded in Hungary, where HUPX rose by €26.3/MWh to €114.92/MWh. Romania, Bulgaria and Greece were close to €114.7/MWh, while Slovenia and Croatia followed at €108.8/MWh and €109.4/MWh. Albania remained the lowest-priced market at €70/MWh, and Montenegro traded at €105.3/MWh.

The main outlier was Serbia, with SEEPEX clearing at only €86.78/MWh. The spread placed Serbia below neighboring coupled markets on the day-ahead curve.

Demand, temperatures and renewable output changes

Regional demand increased marginally to 28.46 GW, while average temperatures rose to 20.8°C. Pricing was linked to a deterioration in the renewable generation balance during the session. Solar output fell by 1.42 GW day-on-day from 6.28 GW to 4.85 GW.

Gas generation also declined sharply by 842 MW, reaching 2.95 GW. Wind rose by 444 MW to 2.32 GW, but it did not fully offset lower solar production. Hydro generation decreased by 305 MW, settling at 6.18 GW.

The resulting generation mix comprised 23% hydro, 18% solar, 16% coal, 13% nuclear, 11% gas, and 8% wind, with imports at 11%. This mix indicated hydro as the dominant marginal balancing technology across SEE despite higher solar penetration levels.

Nets flows and cross-border spreads involving Hungary

Total regional net imports fell to 1,951 MW, down by 1,088 MW from the previous day. Imports from CORE markets decreased by 1,536 MW, dropping to 2,604 MW. The import reduction coincided with the Hungary–Germany spread narrowing from €27.2/MWh to €14.6/MWh.

The commercial flow data continued to show Hungary as the major regional balancing hub for cross-border movements. Exports included approximately 787 MW peak from Romania to Hungary and about 571 MW peak from Hungary to Croatia. Bulgaria to Romania exports were approximately 905 MW peak.

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Intraday pattern and evening price peaks

The hourly profile showed an early-summer renewable pattern across the region. Prices were heavily depressed between hours 12–16 as solar output peaked, with daily minima occurring around 15:00 CET across nearly all markets. After 18:00 CET, prices accelerated rapidly into evening hours, reaching daily peaks between 21:00 and 22:00 CET.

The daily maximums were recorded at different levels across markets: Hungary reached €181.8/MWh, Romania posted €179.0/MWh, Slovenia ended at €171.8/MWh, and Croatia closed at .

Fuel and carbon pricing alongside electricity moves

{{{CEGH gas: €50.25/MWh, down €0.4/MWh; EUA Dec-26: €77.07/t, down €1.5/t; API2 coal Jul-26: $130/t, down $3.5/t}}}

Serbia’s relative weakness versus HUPX discount level

The Serbian price weakness was supported by its position as a net exporter for large portions of the day alongside robust thermal availability. Regional imports into the wider SEE system decreased on 5 June, reducing external pricing pressure into the region’s coupled markets. Domestic hydro and lignite generation were cited as providing relatively low-cost supply compared with gas-dependent neighboring systems during the same period.

The discount of about {{{€28/MWh}}} remains one of the largest observed in recent weeks for Serbia versus HUPX}. Additional cross-border trading activity was noted as possible if transmission capacity stays available for related exchanges on subsequent sessions.

Weekend outlook for solar recovery and volatility drivers

The market structure was described as supportive for volatility-driven strategies based on hourly generation patterns and cross-border constraints during periods of renewable intermittency. Solar production across SEE was expected to recover over the weekend as temperatures rise toward {{{22–26°C}}} across most markets in Southeast Europe. The evening ramp was also highlighted as continuing to create spreads between midday prices and peak evening hours.