The HUPX day-ahead price dropped to €105.96/MWh, down €28.8/MWh compared to the previous day. Similar downward trends were observed across neighboring markets, with Romania’s OPCOM clearing at €93.93/MWh, Bulgaria’s IBEX at €92.28/MWh, and Greece’s HENEX at €89.55/MWh. Serbia’s SEEPEX averaged €102.08/MWh, maintaining a slight premium over surrounding markets due to constrained cross-border capacity and ongoing domestic thermal generation.
In contrast, Albania’s ALPEX market recorded the lowest spot price at €79.76/MWh, while Italy remained the outlier with prices peaking at €146.58/MWh, highlighting structural price premiums linked to gas-dependent generation and transmission challenges between the Adriatic region and Italy.
Electricity consumption across Hungary and the SEE region was estimated at around 32,917 MW, showing a slight decrease from the previous day. Stable average temperatures of approximately 8.6°C contributed to limited demand fluctuations and softer pricing trends. Despite this reduced demand, imports from the CORE market remained vital; net power imports averaged -837 MW with significant inflows from Austria and Slovakia providing approximately 1,960 MW into the regional grid.
The widening price spread between Hungary and Germany reached €57.53/MWh, further encouraging cross-border electricity flows from Western Europe into Central Europe and exerting additional downward pressure on regional prices.
Regional electricity generation was reported at about 33,243 MW, predominantly driven by hydro and thermal sources. Hydro production stood at 8,502 MW due to favorable river conditions in the Danube basin, while coal-fired generation contributed 6,984 MW. Gas plants operated as marginal units during peak hours with an output of around 5,528 MW.
Renewable energy generation faced challenges as wind output fell sharply to 629 MW and solar production decreased to 4,526 MW amid cloudier conditions across Central Europe. Nuclear energy remained stable at 5,702 MW from facilities in Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria.
In terms of fuel markets impacting forward power pricing, the CEGH Austrian gas hub traded around €51.55/MWh—a daily increase of €1.7/MWh—while EU carbon allowances for December 2026 hovered between €70–75/t but showed a slight weekly decline.
Forward power spreads indicated expectations of continued market tightness despite recent price corrections; Hungarian forward contracts were quoted at approximately €118/MWh for week 12 and €113/MWh for week 13. Additionally, coal futures on the API2 benchmark were trading between $127–128/t for April 2026.
Cross-border commercial flows revealed persistent exports from Romania and Hungary towards Serbia and other Western Balkan countries while electricity also moved from Slovenia and Croatia towards Italy via Alpine connections. The Romania-Hungary corridor emerged as a key route for balancing flows throughout Central and Eastern Europe.
Serbia’s recent regulatory developments have significantly impacted trading dynamics; since January 2026, Serbian electricity exports to the EU have effectively ceased due to the EU’s CBAM carbon charge adding approximately €78/MWh to Serbian exports—rendering them uncompetitive against EU-generated electricity.
In response to grid stability concerns stemming from an influx of renewable project applications that exceeded integration capacity limits, Serbia has temporarily halted new renewable connection approvals. This pause may delay future renewable capacity additions but could also help stabilize regional power prices if demand increases later this year.
Meanwhile, Slovenia expanded its solar capacity by about 230 MW in 2025—bringing its total installed solar fleet to roughly 1,650 MW—though growth has decelerated compared to previous years due to changes in support schemes.
Looking ahead in the short term, several factors are poised to influence electricity prices across Southeast Europe: robust cross-border flows from CORE markets are expected as long as the Hungary-Germany spread remains above €50/MWh; high variability in renewable generation may exert additional pressure on day-ahead markets; finally, regulatory shifts related to Serbian exports could redirect electricity flows towards intra-Balkan trading routes rather than Western European markets throughout 2026.
Traders anticipate that most Southeast European day-ahead markets will maintain a trading range of €90–110/MWh in the near term with volatility driven primarily by renewable output variability and cross-border capacity constraints.
