In the fourth week of February, Brent oil futures on the ICE market exhibited a predominantly downward trajectory, culminating in a low of $70.75 per barrel on February 26. However, a subsequent uptick of 2.4% on February 27 led to a rise to $72.48 per barrel, marking a weekly high and reflecting an increase of 1.0% from the previous week. This price point represents the highest level observed since June 21, 2025.
The decline in Brent prices during this period was primarily attributed to concerns surrounding demand caused by newly imposed US tariffs and speculation regarding potential increases in OPEC+ production levels. Nevertheless, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East provided upward support for prices as the week progressed. OPEC+ is set to resume production increases starting in April following its meeting on March 1, which may further affect market dynamics. The volatility is expected to persist into early March due to ongoing conflicts involving Iran and potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
Meanwhile, TTF gas futures for the front month remained stable above €30 per megawatt-hour during this same week. The minimum settlement price recorded was €30.89 per MWh on February 24, while the maximum reached €32.22 per MWh on February 26. By February 27, prices slightly decreased to €31.96 per MWh, reflecting a marginal decline of 0.2% from the previous Friday.
Factors such as high liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply and increased renewable energy generation contributed to keeping TTF prices below €32 per MWh early in the week, despite low storage levels across Europe. However, rising concerns over potential supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz amid heightened tensions in the Middle East pushed prices higher toward the end of the week, indicating that geopolitical risks will likely continue to shape TTF gas pricing in early March.
For CO₂ emission allowance futures traded on the EEX market for December 2026 contracts, prices consistently remained above €70 per tonne during this period. The peak settlement price was recorded at €72.60 per tonne on February 25 before declining to a weekly minimum of €70.29 per tonne by February 27, representing a decrease of 4.7% compared to the prior week.
The fluctuations in these markets underscore significant developments affecting energy pricing structures and highlight ongoing regulatory and geopolitical influences that are pivotal for stakeholders across various sectors within Southeast Europe and beyond.
