In the first week of January 2025, Brent oil futures saw a positive price trend on the ICE market. The week started with the lowest settlement price on December 30, at $74.39 per barrel. However, prices steadily increased, reaching a weekly high of $76.51 per barrel on Friday, January 3, a 3.2% rise from the previous Friday, marking the highest price since October 15, 2024. On Monday, January 6, the price slightly dropped to $76.30 per barrel.
The upward movement in Brent oil prices in early January was driven by several factors, including expectations of higher demand due to low temperatures, potential increases in sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil, and hopes for an economic stimulus in China that could lead to increased demand throughout 2025.
Regarding TTF gas futures on the ICE market for the Front Month, prices started the week with a low point of €47.63 per MWh on December 30. However, prices increased, reaching a peak of €50.20 per MWh on January 2, the highest since October 31, 2023. On January 3, the price fell 1.3% to €49.54 per MWh, still 3.8% higher than the previous week. By Monday, January 6, the price dropped again to €47.33 per MWh.
The increase in TTF gas prices was largely influenced by the termination of Russia’s gas supply contract via Ukraine, which resulted in supply disruptions. Additionally, colder temperatures and the declining levels of gas reserves in Europe further contributed to the price rise.
In the CO2 emissions allowance market on the EEX exchange, futures for December 2025 remained above €70 per ton throughout the week of December 30 and surpassed €75 per ton in the first two sessions of January. On January 3, the futures price peaked at €75.94 per ton, marking a 6.1% increase from the previous Friday and the highest price since June 4, 2024. However, by Monday, January 6, the price fell slightly to €74.36 per ton.
These market movements reflect a combination of geopolitical tensions, weather-related demand factors, and concerns about supply disruptions, all contributing to volatility in energy and carbon markets at the start of 2025.
