During the fourth week of May, Brent crude oil futures (Front Month, ICE) stayed under the $100/bbl threshold. The highest settlement price in the period was $99.58/bbl on Tuesday, May 26. After that level, prices weakened gradually into the end of the week.
By Friday, May 29, Brent futures dropped to a weekly low of $92.05/bbl. That level was 11% lower than the previous Friday and marked the weakest point since April 18. Data analyzed by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting indicated a volatile but downward weekly trajectory.
Oil prices track easing risk expectations amid US-Iran talks
Geopolitical tensions continued, particularly in the Middle East, while sentiment in oil markets was also shaped by expectations of progress toward a potential peace agreement between the United States and Iran. Those expectations were linked to easing risk premiums during the week. As a result, oil prices moved lower across the same period.
Market pricing therefore reflected both the ongoing geopolitical backdrop and changes in perceived risk around US-Iran engagement. The week’s settlement pattern showed a shift from the May 26 high toward weaker levels by May 29. This sequence aligned with the reported easing of risk premiums tied to the agreement expectations.
TTF gas futures fluctuate within a narrow range
In European gas trading, TTF natural gas futures (ICE, Front Month) recorded pronounced day-to-day swings. The weekly minimum occurred on Monday, May 25, at €45.43/MWh. Prices then rose by 4.5% on Tuesday, May 26.
On Tuesday, May 26, TTF futures peaked at €47.47/MWh before holding below €47/MWh for the remainder of the week. By Friday, May 29, they settled at €46.00/MWh. That represented a 5.5% decline compared with the previous Friday.
Gas price moves were influenced by opposing factors during the week. Expectations of a potential US–Iran agreement exerted downward pressure on prices. At the same time, limited European storage levels and higher temperatures supporting demand helped prevent a larger fall.
EEX carbon allowances rise after Monday’s low
EEX CO₂ emission allowance futures (December 2026 contract) followed a different weekly pattern than oil and gas. Prices reached their weekly low on Monday, May 25, at €76.77/t. From there, they increased steadily through the week.
By Friday, May 29, EEX December 2026 futures peaked at €80.63/t. The gain from the previous Friday was 4.8%. It also represented the highest level since February 10.
AleaSoft reports that carbon prices moved upward with steady momentum while oil and gas markets faced downward pressure tied to easing geopolitical risk expectations and mixed demand signals.
