Türkiye recorded an average day-ahead electricity price of €4.03/MWh in Week 22, after prices fell by more than 73%. The Turkish level was described as the dominant outlier across Southeast Europe, with no other market in the regional sample reaching similar values. Greece averaged €86.77/MWh, Bulgaria €93.50/MWh, Serbia €105.71/MWh, and Italy €123.58/MWh. As reported by Electricity.trade, Türkiye’s ultra-low price week highlighted the limits of SEE market convergence .
Demand drop and generation shifts behind the Turkish price collapse
The price decline coincided with a sharp fall in Turkish demand. Türkiye’s electricity consumption dropped by 21.7%, equivalent to 1.38 TWh, exceeding the entire net decrease in SEE demand. Thermal generation fell by 41.4%, including a 70.6% reduction in gas-fired output. Over the same period, Türkiye nearly tripled its exports to 95 GWh.
Regional pricing transmission constrained by interconnection and market rules
The divergence raised a commercial question about why low Turkish prices did not pull other SEE markets down more strongly. The explanation provided points to physical and institutional limits on integration, including interconnection capacity, scheduling rules, domestic market arrangements and congestion. These factors can prevent a single low-price area from fully resetting regional prices. Italy still cleared at €123.58/MWh, while Serbia rose to €105.71/MWh, and Bulgaria remained above €90/MWh.
Implications for trading access and revenue conversion
The gap between Türkiye at €4.03/MWh and neighbouring markets above €90/MWh implies large theoretical spreads for market participants. However, only capacity that is physically available and commercially tradable can turn those spreads into revenue. This is reflected in how regional power trading depends on infrastructure and market access rather than price levels alone . The Turkish case is therefore presented as an example of geographically contained price signals.
Investment risks linked to low demand and renewable-heavy systems
The Week 22 episode is also framed as showing risks for investors in systems with high renewable penetration or low demand when export depth or flexible demand is insufficient. Ultra-low prices may support consumers, while potentially weakening merchant revenue for generators during periods of surplus supply. In markets where renewables are expanding, price collapses may occur more often unless storage, demand response, interconnection and flexible industrial load increase fast enough . The Turkish week is cited as illustrating these constraints through the combination of demand contraction and export expansion.
