On October 4, day-ahead electricity prices across Southeast Europe and Hungary experienced a significant increase, attributed to decreased renewable energy output and tighter supply dynamics. The rise in prices was further influenced by bullish trends emerging from Central European markets, indicating a strong regional coupling.
Leading the price escalation was Hungary’s HUPX exchange, where baseload prices surged to EUR 133.86/MWh, reflecting a day-on-day increase of nearly EUR 31. This trend resonated across interconnected markets, showcasing robust price coupling and heightened cross-border trading activity.
In the broader Southeast European context, Croatia and Slovenia recorded prices of EUR 127.83/MWh on CROPEX and EUR 126.91/MWh on BSP, respectively. Romania’s OPCOM cleared at EUR 119.05/MWh, while Serbia’s SEEPEX noted EUR 115.21/MWh. Bulgaria’s IBEX settled at EUR 111.99/MWh, with Greece’s HENEX at a comparatively lower EUR 95.30/MWh.
Montenegro and Albania reported more moderate levels at EUR 99.54/MWh and EUR 98.25/MWh, respectively, while North Macedonia’s MEMO stood out as the only exception, dropping to EUR 84.23/MWh.
The surge in electricity prices can be primarily linked to a reduction in renewable energy generation, particularly from wind and solar sources. This decline has necessitated greater reliance on conventional power plants, consequently driving up marginal production costs throughout the region.
Total electricity demand in Southeast Europe and Hungary reached 29,389 MW, with total generation slightly lower at 29,216 MW, indicating a balanced yet tight market environment.
The generation mix revealed that hydropower remained the dominant source of electricity, contributing 27%. Nuclear energy followed with 20%, coal at 15%, solar at 14%, gas at 12%, wind at 7%, and imports making up approximately 5%.
The role of cross-border electricity flows has been crucial in maintaining system balance, with net imports into the region standing at 255 MW. This reflects tighter availability from neighboring markets and underscores the interdependence within Southeast Europe.
A robust trading environment was noted along key corridors connecting Hungary, Romania, Serbia, and Bulgaria, reinforcing the integration of Southeast Europe into the broader European electricity market.
The upward pressure on power prices is further supported by firm fuel and carbon markets; Austrian CEGH gas traded at EUR 48.02/MWh, while EU carbon allowances were priced at EUR 73.72 per tonne. These factors have contributed to shaping marginal pricing in coal- and gas-dependent systems across the region.
The intraday trading landscape revealed significant volatility in Hungary, where HUPX prices fluctuated between EUR 86.9/MWh and peaks of EUR 244.9/MWh. This volatility highlights the increasing necessity for flexible generation solutions and energy storage capabilities to stabilize regional markets.
The weather outlook suggests gradually rising temperatures across Southeast Europe in the coming days which may enhance solar output; however, traders remain cautious due to ongoing fluctuations in renewable generation.
The market outlook indicates that traders expect continued volatility aligned closely with Central European trends. Key bullish drivers include reduced wind generation, elevated gas and carbon costs, tight regional supply conditions, and strong cross-border demand. Conversely, potential bearish factors comprise increasing solar production, seasonal demand moderation, improving weather conditions, and possible growth in hydropower output.
This latest market activity underscores Southeast Europe’s ongoing integration into the European power framework with Hungary maintaining its position as a critical pricing benchmark for the region.
