The regional power market experienced a strong bullish correction on 5 June, with Central European markets rebounding sharply after the previous day’s low renewable output pricing event. Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and Greece converged around €114.7/MWh, while Serbia remained the regional outlier at €86.8/MWh, maintaining a discount of approximately €28/MWh to HUPX.
The strongest day-ahead price increase occurred in Hungary, where HUPX surged by €26.3/MWh to €114.92/MWh. Romania, Bulgaria and Greece moved almost identically to €114.7/MWh, reflecting strong market coupling and synchronized regional fundamentals. Slovenia and Croatia followed at €108.8/MWh and €109.4/MWh, respectively. Albania remained the cheapest market at €70/MWh, while Montenegro traded at €105.3/MWh.
The key regional anomaly remained Serbia. SEEPEX cleared at only €86.78/MWh, significantly below neighboring coupled markets. This spread reflects continued domestic generation adequacy and structurally lower marginal pricing pressure compared with the wider Central European system.
Regional demand increased marginally to 28.46 GW, while average temperatures rose to 20.8°C. However, the dominant driver of pricing was a sharp deterioration in the renewable generation balance. Solar output dropped by 1.42 GW day-on-day, falling from 6.28 GW to 4.85 GW. Gas generation also declined sharply by 842 MW to 2.95 GW.
Wind partially compensated, rising by 444 MW to 2.32 GW, but the increase was insufficient to offset weaker solar production. Hydro generation also declined by 305 MW, reaching 6.18 GW. The resulting mix highlighted hydro as the dominant system balancing resource across SEE.
The generation structure consisted of hydro at 23%, solar at 18%, coal at 16%, nuclear at 13%, gas at 11%, wind at 8%, and imports at 11%. This confirms that despite rapid solar growth, hydro remains the backbone of regional balancing.
Cross-border flows showed a sharp adjustment in regional equilibrium. Net imports fell to 1,951 MW, down by 1,088 MW day-on-day. Imports from CORE markets declined by 1,536 MW to 2,604 MW, reflecting reduced external arbitrage pressure.
The collapse of the Hungary-Germany spread from €27.2/MWh to €14.6/MWh further weakened west-to-east flow incentives. Hungary continued to act as the main regional balancing hub, with strong bidirectional flows across Romania, Croatia and Bulgaria.
Intraday profiles displayed a classic early-summer pattern. Midday prices were heavily depressed between 12:00–16:00 due to solar peaks, while the daily low formed around 15:00 CET. Evening ramps were steep, with prices surging after 18:00 and peaking between 21:00–22:00 CET across most markets.
Hungary reached a daily maximum of €181.8/MWh, Romania €179.0/MWh, Slovenia €171.8/MWh and Croatia €172.8/MWh, highlighting the growing importance of evening scarcity pricing dynamics.
Fuel and carbon markets remained soft, with CEGH gas at €50.25/MWh, EUA Dec-26 at €77.07/t and API2 coal at $130/t. Despite weaker input costs, electricity prices increased due to renewable intermittency rather than fuel-driven inflation.
Serbia continued to stand out with a persistent structural discount. Key drivers included stable domestic supply, strong lignite and hydro availability, and reduced exposure to external pricing pressure. The €28/MWh discount to HUPX remains one of the largest regional spreads.
From a trading perspective, the market remains highly favorable for volatility-driven strategies. Weekend forecasts suggest rising solar output as temperatures increase toward 22–26°C, but the structural imbalance between midday oversupply and evening scarcity is expected to persist.
Key market themes remain clear: expanding battery arbitrage opportunities, strong evening price spikes, continued coupling among Hungary–Romania–Bulgaria–Greece, and persistent SEEPEX discounting versus Central Europe. At the same time, declining gas and carbon prices suggest that forward curves will be driven more by hourly supply patterns and grid constraints than traditional commodity fundamentals.
