Scheduled electricity exports from Serbia to Hungary more than doubled in the second quarter of 2026, pointing to a strengthening northbound trading corridor linking Southeast European power markets with growing demand in Hungary and Ukraine.
Commercial electricity flows from Serbia to Hungary increased by 111% year on year, while scheduled exports from Romania to Hungary rose by 156%, according to Energy Community data. The changes highlight a significant shift in regional trading patterns following the start of the definitive phase of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism on January 1.
During the first quarter, exceptionally strong hydropower generation pushed electricity northwards from Greece and Albania through Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia. Although the regional hydro surplus weakened in the second quarter, electricity trading did not fully return to its previous configuration.
Ukraine is increasingly emerging as an important destination for surplus electricity from Southeast Europe. Hungary’s role as a regional hub connecting Balkan supply with Ukrainian demand has consequently increased the commercial importance of the Serbia-Hungary interconnection.
The development could strengthen the value of cross-border capacity between Serbia and Hungary, particularly during periods of elevated Ukrainian import requirements, constrained domestic generation or significant price differences across Central European markets.
At the same time, the changing trade pattern highlights a growing gap between commercial schedules and physical electricity flows. Contractual trading paths do not necessarily correspond to the actual route taken by electricity through the interconnected regional grid.
The difference is particularly visible on the Bosnia-Croatia border. Physical electricity exports reached approximately 824 GWh in the second quarter, while commercially scheduled exports amounted to only 282 GWh. Physical flows therefore increased even as scheduled commercial volumes declined.
This divergence reflects the fundamental characteristics of an interconnected electricity system. Power flows according to network conditions, generation and demand rather than the contractual origin assigned to an individual megawatt-hour. Such differences can increase the need for operational-security measures, redispatch and countertrading by transmission system operators.
CBAM adds a new commercial dimension to this existing physical reality. The carbon obligation is linked to the declared origin and import arrangement of the electricity, while the transmission network cannot physically preserve the identity of individual megawatt-hours as they move across interconnected borders.
Serbia is therefore taking on an increasingly complex role in the regional power market. It functions simultaneously as a generation market, importer, exporter and transit country, connecting electricity flows between the southern Balkans, Hungary and, indirectly, Ukraine.
The strengthening northbound corridor could create new opportunities for Serbian electricity traders, particularly when regional supply is available and Ukrainian demand or Central European price spreads are strong. However, it also increases the importance of accurate capacity nominations, clearly documented transit arrangements and contractual allocation of CBAM responsibilities.
Regional electricity trading is consequently moving beyond the traditional model of simply exploiting price differences between neighbouring markets. Increasingly, successful transactions will depend on the interaction between carbon origin, cross-border scheduling, contractual structures and the physical realities of the interconnected grid.
