SEEPEX day-ahead prices increased sharply on 13 July, with the baseload average reaching €97.53/MWh, up 34.3% from Sunday’s €72.62/MWh. The peak-load average was reported at €78.83/MWh. Traded day-ahead volume totalled 15,746.3 MWh. Average Serbian electricity demand was indicated at approximately 3,395 MW, compared with 3,188 MW on Sunday.
Hourly profile shows deeper midday softness and steep evening rise
The hourly price pattern was described as more significant than the baseload average for the session. SEEPEX prices fell to €29/MWh at 09:00 and then stayed around €50–52/MWh through much of the central solar generation window. The market price climbed later in the day, reaching €129.95/MWh at 17:00 and €174/MWh at 19:00. The daily maximum was recorded at €189.84/MWh at 20:00.
The minimum-to-maximum spread was calculated at approximately €160.84/MWh. Using only half of that theoretical range would imply a gross daily arbitrage envelope of roughly €80/MWh for a battery, before round-trip efficiency losses, degradation, market fees, balancing exposure and dispatch constraints.
Serbia trades below neighbours while evening levels remain elevated
Serbia was reported as substantially cheaper than the coupled Central European markets during the session. The SEEPEX baseload average was approximately €28.37/MWh below Hungary, €28.48/MWh below Slovenia, €22.19/MWh below Croatia and €16.93/MWh below Romania. This spread indicates Serbia was not the regional marginal price-setting zone for most of the day. Evening prices still approached levels typically associated with gas-fired generation, imports and constrained flexible capacity.
No negative-price interval appeared in the published SEEPEX hourly profile for the day-ahead curve. The session’s €29/MWh low at 09:00 indicates that solar cannibalisation is not limited to weekends or exceptionally weak-demand days. Unshaped Serbian solar PPAs therefore face lower capture prices than baseload contracts, while wind projects have a materially different generation profile and are not suited to valuation using solar capture-price assumptions.
Day-ahead curve remains key signal ahead of intraday moves
A consistent market-wide intraday volume-weighted price was not available publicly at the morning cut-off referenced in the reporting. As a result, the day-ahead curve remained described as the clearest executable market signal for timing trades. Intraday volatility was expected to cluster around afternoon cloud cover and temperature forecasts, wind generation deviations and the steep 17:00–21:00 net-load ramp.
