Southeast European day-ahead power prices rose sharply for delivery on Monday, with Hungary and the northern Balkans moving close to EUR 180/MWh as electricity demand recovered from the weekend and weaker wind generation tightened the regional supply-demand balance.
Hungary’s HUPX market settled at EUR 183.86/MWh, up EUR 45.9/MWh from Sunday, making it the highest-priced market in the region. Slovenia followed at EUR 181.48/MWh, Croatia at EUR 180.63/MWh, Austria at EUR 181.46/MWh and Italy at EUR 179.30/MWh. Romania cleared at EUR 172.58/MWh and Bulgaria at EUR 169.90/MWh.
Further south, Greece remained considerably cheaper at EUR 153.42/MWh, while Serbia was the regional low at EUR 128.19/MWh. Albania cleared at EUR 144.33/MWh, North Macedonia at EUR 151.23/MWh and Montenegro at EUR 168.22/MWh.
The rally was broad-based. Greek prices jumped EUR 48.4/MWh day on day, North Macedonia rose EUR 48.3/MWh, Serbia EUR 46.0/MWh, Hungary EUR 45.9/MWh, Slovenia EUR 43.7/MWh, Bulgaria EUR 43.3/MWh and Croatia EUR 42.9/MWh.
The move reflected a substantially tighter regional physical balance following Sunday’s lower-load session.
Combined electricity consumption across Hungary and southeast Europe increased to 30,974 MW, up 4,206 MW day on day. At the same time, the region shifted from a small net export position of 240 MW on Sunday to net imports of 1,107 MW for Monday delivery. Imports from the core European market through Austria and Slovakia increased to 1,405 MW, around 402 MW higher than the previous day.
Renewable availability was mixed. Wind generation fell sharply to 2,210 MW from 3,227 MW, removing more than 1 GW of relatively low-cost production from the market. Hydro output also declined to 4,082 MW from 4,355 MW.
Solar generation increased by roughly 515 MW to 6,830 MW, but the additional photovoltaic output was insufficient to offset stronger demand and the decline in wind and hydro production. Coal-fired generation rose to 6,154 MW, while gas-fired plants increased production to 4,391 MW, indicating heavier reliance on thermal capacity.
The tighter balance was particularly visible in the shape of the Hungarian day-ahead curve.
The HUPX base price increased to EUR 183.9/MWh from EUR 137.9/MWh on Sunday, while the peak contract jumped to EUR 181.4/MWh from EUR 101.6/MWh.
The strongest change came in the minimum hourly price, which climbed to EUR 142.3/MWh from just EUR 27.3/MWh a day earlier. The maximum price rose more moderately to EUR 226.1/MWh from EUR 206.5/MWh.
The pattern suggests that Monday’s rally was driven less by an isolated evening scarcity event and more by a broad upward repricing across the entire delivery day, particularly during previously weak midday hours.
Northern SEE markets showed strong convergence with Hungary. Slovenia cleared at EUR 181.5/MWh, Croatia at EUR 180.6/MWh and Austria at EUR 181.5/MWh, with minimum prices clustered around EUR 140-142/MWh.
The close alignment indicates a relatively tightly coupled Hungary-Slovenia-Croatia-Austria price zone, while larger spreads persisted toward the southern Balkans.
Hungary traded around EUR 11/MWh above Romania, EUR 14/MWh above Bulgaria, EUR 30/MWh above Greece and almost EUR 56/MWh above Serbia.
Serbia remained the most significant regional discount, despite its own strong day-on-day increase. SEEPEX settled at EUR 128.2/MWh, with a peak average of EUR 120.6/MWh, a minimum hourly price of EUR 62/MWh and a maximum of EUR 240/MWh.
The large Serbia-Hungary spread continued to point to congestion and limited northbound transfer capability rather than a fully integrated price response across the region.
Greece also remained structurally below the northern markets. HENEX averaged EUR 153.4/MWh, with its minimum hourly price at only EUR 28.4/MWh despite an off-peak average of EUR 183.1/MWh. Bulgaria was considerably firmer at EUR 169.9/MWh, with a minimum of EUR 122.5/MWh.
Cross-border flows reflected the changing regional price structure.
HU+SEE shifted to net imports of 1,107 MW, while exports toward Italy fell sharply to 281 MW from 1,364 MW on Sunday. Core imports from Austria and Slovakia increased to 1,405 MW.
The reduction in flows toward Italy coincided with convergence between Italian and northern SEE prices. Italian national day-ahead power settled at EUR 179.3/MWh, only around EUR 4.6/MWh below Hungary, while the Italian peak price stood at around EUR 169.7/MWh, below the Hungarian peak level.
Near-term fuel markets were comparatively stable and provided little explanation for the magnitude of the spot rally.
CEGH gas was quoted at EUR 62.18/MWh, while EUA carbon allowances stood at around EUR 81.79/t. Hungarian Week 34 power was assessed at EUR 156.50/MWh, Week 35 at EUR 160.50/MWh, September at EUR 161.50/MWh and Calendar 2026 at EUR 126.50/MWh.
The day-ahead HUPX settlement therefore stood more than EUR 22/MWh above the September contract, highlighting the extent to which the current premium is concentrated in the short-term physical market rather than fully reflected further along the curve.
The regional market remains particularly sensitive to wind availability and weekday demand. Monday’s session combined a 4.2 GW increase in consumption with a drop of more than 1 GW in wind generation, while hydro production also weakened.
That combination pushed the HU+SEE system back into import dependence and lifted the entire northern SEE price structure.
The key market feature for the next delivery sessions remains the widening divide between the tightly converged EUR 180/MWh northern cluster around Hungary, Slovenia, Croatia and Austria and substantially cheaper markets in Serbia, Albania, North Macedonia and Greece.
With HUPX’s daily minimum already above EUR 140/MWh, the current market is showing broad scarcity across the load curve rather than a price pattern driven only by the evening peak.
