Electricity prices across much of Southeastern Europe rose sharply on 13 August 2026, as higher regional demand and pronounced evening scarcity outweighed an improvement in renewable generation.
The Hungarian day-ahead baseload price increased by €18.80/MWh to €163.69/MWh. Romania followed closely at €163.54/MWh, leaving a spread of just €0.15/MWh to Hungary. Slovenia and Croatia also converged around the same level, reaching €165.65/MWh and €164.83/MWh respectively.
Serbia registered the strongest daily increase in the region. The SEEPEX price jumped by €43.60/MWh to €157.20/MWh. Bulgaria advanced by €12.70/MWh to €138.29/MWh, while prices in Germany and Austria rose to €147.07/MWh and €161.55/MWh.
Italy remained the most expensive market covered by the report, with its national price increasing to €183.80/MWh. This placed Italy at a premium of €20.11/MWh to Hungary.
In contrast, Greece and parts of the southern Balkans remained significantly cheaper. The Greek HENEX price declined by €8.70/MWh to €95.81/MWh, widening its discount to Hungary to €67.89/MWh. North Macedonia fell to €128.53/MWh and Albania to €146.65/MWh, while Montenegro was broadly unchanged at €141.97/MWh.
Evening hours drive Hungarian volatility
The Hungarian market displayed a particularly pronounced intraday price profile. HUPX fell to its daily minimum of €83.50/MWh at hour 14, during the period of strongest solar generation, before climbing to €338.90/MWh at hour 21.
The resulting daily range of €255.40/MWh illustrates the growing importance of hourly shape risk. Hungary’s peak-period average was €140.80/MWh, while the off-peak average reached €186.60/MWh, reflecting the contribution of high-priced evening hours to the latter block.
The €338.90/MWh maximum was also recorded in Germany, Romania and Slovenia at hour 21. This simultaneous evening peak points to strong market coupling and a region-wide tightening of supply after solar output declined.
By comparison, midday prices remained under pressure from renewable production. The combination of a relatively soft solar interval and a steep evening ramp meant that the baseload price alone did not fully capture the day’s trading conditions.
Regional demand increases despite cooler weather
Forecast electricity consumption across Hungary and Southeastern Europe increased by 563 MW to an average of 33,186 MW, despite a decline in regional temperature.
The main demand increase came from Romania and Bulgaria, where combined consumption rose by 592 MW. Hungarian demand declined by 40 MW to 4,461 MW, while Greek consumption decreased by 53 MW to 7,216 MW.
Renewable forecasts were also stronger. Regional solar generation was expected to rise by 1,302 MW to 8,558 MW, while wind output increased by 77 MW to 4,888 MW.
The fact that prices strengthened despite substantially higher solar availability indicates that the market was not facing a simple shortage of daily energy. Instead, the timing of production, evening ramp requirements and cross-border transmission conditions appear to have been the principal drivers.
The region’s reported net-import position stood at -229 MW, an improvement of 128 MW from the previous day. Imports from Austria and Slovakia increased by 62 MW to 1,018 MW. These flows helped support the Central and Eastern European markets but were insufficient to prevent the evening price spike.
Hungarian forward curve remains elevated
Hungarian power forwards presented a mixed picture at the front of the curve but strengthened across the monthly and annual contracts.
The Week 34 contract declined by €0.50/MWh to €160.50/MWh, while Week 35 gained €0.50/MWh to the same level. September 2026 increased by €2.50/MWh to €162.50/MWh, and the calendar contract rose by €2/MWh to €127/MWh.
Hungarian electricity continued to trade at a substantial premium to Germany. The HU-DE spread was assessed at €31/MWh for Week 34, €33.50/MWh for Week 35 and €27.50/MWh for September. The calendar spread stood at €21/MWh.
These forward differentials suggest that the Hungarian risk premium is structural rather than limited to the current day-ahead session. Traders continue to price tighter regional balances and greater exposure to imports into the Hungarian curve.
Fuel markets provided additional support. Austrian CEGH gas increased by €1.20/MWh to €61.90/MWh, raising the variable cost of gas-fired generation. The EUA carbon price declined by €0.50 to €81.99 per tonne, but the decrease offered only a limited offset to higher gas costs. September coal also edged higher to $122.50 per tonne.
Outlook
The near-term market outlook remains bullish but highly dependent on hourly fundamentals. Strong solar generation may continue to suppress prices around midday, while evening hours remain vulnerable to sharp increases as renewable production falls and thermal or imported electricity must replace it.
The growing divergence between midday and evening prices makes hourly positioning increasingly important. Baseload contracts may conceal substantial exposure to the evening ramp, particularly in Hungary, Romania, Slovenia and Croatia.
Regional spreads also offer clear trading signals. Hungary and Romania are effectively coupled, while Greece remains deeply discounted and Italy retains a sizeable premium. Changes in cross-border availability, thermal-unit performance or renewable forecasts could therefore produce significant movements in both outright prices and regional spreads.
