The 7 July 2026 SEE-Hungary day-ahead session shows a market that is no longer being driven by broad regional scarcity, but by local balancing pressure, Italy’s premium, and the uneven recovery of thermal and nuclear availability. Most SEE hubs clustered tightly around €102–108/MWh, while Italy National remained far above the region at €142.36/MWh and Germany fell to €72.80/MWh, widening the HUPX-DE spread to €34.04/MWh. That spread is the clearest trading signal in the data: Central Europe weakened sharply, but Hungary and SEE held a material premium because the region still needed imports and because part of the regional balance was being pulled toward Italy.
HUPX settled at €106.85/MWh, down €9.6/MWh day on day, but it remained well above Germany. Romania, Bulgaria, Greece, Slovenia, Croatia and Albania all printed close to the Hungarian reference, with OPCOM at €103.81/MWh, IBEX at €103.03/MWh, HENEX at €103.51/MWh, BSP at €103.11/MWh, CROPEX at €102.34/MWh and ALPEX at €103.56/MWh. Serbia and North Macedonia were the two upside outliers inside the SEE block, with SEEPEX at €108.01/MWh and MEMO at €108.84/MWh, while Montenegro was the downside outlier at €93.85/MWh after a sharp €39.4/MWh daily fall.
The physical balance explains why prices did not collapse toward Germany. Regional consumption rose to 32,075 MW, up 1,604 MW day on day, while total net imports increased to 1,979 MW, up 556 MW. Imports from the core direction also strengthened, with AT+SK flows into the region at 3,244 MW, up 549 MW. In other words, lower German and Austrian prices helped supply the system, but they did not erase the regional premium because SEE-Hungary still required external support.
The most important flow signal is Italy. Even while the wider HU+SEE region was a net importer, the region still scheduled 1,083 MW toward Italy, where the national price stood at €142.36/MWh. That created a classic SEE trading structure: core Europe supplied into Hungary and Slovenia, while regional positions were reshuffled south and west toward the Italian premium. Montenegro is the clearest example. BELEN cleared low at €93.85/MWh, yet commercial schedules showed Montenegro > Italy at 425 MW base and 438 MW peak, while Montenegro remained a net importer overall at 160 MW. That is not a domestic surplus story; it is a cross-border optimization story built around the Adriatic cable and Italy’s sustained premium.
Serbia remained one of the tighter markets in the region. SEEPEX rose €10.2/MWh to €108.01/MWh, making Serbia more expensive than Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Greece, Croatia, Slovenia and Albania. The Serbian balance showed 3,476 MW of consumption, 2,974 MW of generation and 502 MW of net imports. The import requirement was heavier in peak hours, with Serbia’s total commercial balance at -785 MW peak versus -219 MW off-peak. Serbia imported from Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Hungary, Bulgaria and North Macedonia, while exporting to Romania and Montenegro. That profile supports the SEEPEX premium: Serbia was not simply following the regional curve; it was pricing local peak adequacy.
Hungary also stayed structurally short. Hungarian consumption was forecast at 4,662 MW, while generation was 3,695 MW, leaving the country net importing 967 MW. The market relied heavily on flows from Austria and Slovakia, while still exporting toward Croatia, Slovenia and Romania in parts of the schedule. This is why HUPX could fall day on day and still preserve a large premium to Germany. The drop in HUPX was directional, but the Hungarian hub remained a regional balancing node rather than a fully coupled extension of German oversupply.
Romania’s price decline to €103.81/MWh was helped by the return of Cernavoda unit 1, which added back 700 MW of nuclear capacity after scheduled maintenance. That improves evening balance quality, especially when solar fades, but Romania still showed 596 MW of net imports on the day. The market was therefore softer, not loose. The return of nuclear capacity lowers Romanian scarcity risk and should reduce reliance on imports during peak windows, but the data still points to a system where demand and cross-border schedules kept OPCOM aligned with the SEE cluster rather than pushing it materially below it.
Bulgaria remained the strongest exporter in the daily balance. It showed 5,074 MW of generation against 3,809 MW of consumption and exported 1,266 MW net. Flows were directed toward Romania, Serbia, North Macedonia and Greece. This reinforces Bulgaria’s role as the regional supply anchor when nuclear and solar output are stable. IBEX at €103.03/MWh did not trade at a deep discount because much of the surplus was absorbed through interconnectors, particularly toward higher-value neighboring markets.
Greece printed €103.51/MWh, close to the regional average, despite stronger solar and gas flexibility. The country’s balance showed 7,192 MW of consumption and 7,274 MW of generation, with only 82 MW of net exports on base, but a stronger 630 MW peak export profile. Greece exported toward North Macedonia, Albania and Italy, while importing from Bulgaria. This mixed position explains why HENEX did not detach materially from the Bulgarian and Romanian prices.
The forward curve moved in the opposite direction from the spot tightness signal. Hungarian Week 29 fell sharply to €132/MWh, down €14/MWh, while Week 30 dropped to €126/MWh, down €7.5/MWh. The Hungarian Week 29 spread to Germany narrowed to €19.5/MWh, down €11/MWh. Fuel inputs were also softer, with CEGH gas at €45.71/MWh, Greek gas at €42.87/MWh, and coal forwards lower, while EUA moved higher to €81.79/t. The forward market is therefore pricing some relief from immediate weather and outage stress, but not a full normalization of the Hungary-SEE premium.
The daily trading read is clear: spot prices softened across most SEE markets, but this was not a bearish system reset. The region remained import-dependent, Hungary continued to price above Germany, Serbia tightened, and Italy preserved the strongest premium signal. For traders, the relevant spreads are Germany-to-Hungary, SEE-to-Italy, and Serbia versus the regional cluster. For generators, the value remains concentrated in evening and peak flexibility, especially where hydro, gas, batteries or import rights can respond to the shape of the curve rather than the daily baseload average.
