On May 6, the South-East European electricity markets observed a notable increase in spot prices, driven by declining renewable energy output and heightened demand for thermal generation. The Hungarian HUPX baseload price rose to €126.25/MWh, while Romania’s OPCOM settled at €131.52/MWh, and Slovenia’s BSP reached €133.81/MWh. This trend marks a continuation of the recent rebound in power pricing across Central and SEE regions.
The overall market dynamics revealed increasing intraday volatility, despite moderate demand levels. Total power consumption across SEE and Hungary decreased to 27.8 GW, down approximately 340 MW from the previous day. However, falling renewable generation further tightened system balances, necessitating a return to thermal generation.
Significant reductions in renewable output were recorded: solar generation fell by over 520 MW, wind output decreased by around 150 MW, and hydro production weakened by approximately 340 MW. These declines highlight lower water availability and reduced operational flexibility in several Balkan systems.
The reliance on thermal generation became apparent as coal-fired capacity increased by more than 600 MW, complemented by a rise of around 180 MW in gas-fired output. This shift underscores the structural dependence of SEE markets on conventional energy sources during periods of diminished renewable supply, particularly during evening demand peaks.
The divergence between daytime and evening pricing profiles has drawn attention from market participants, with hourly curves across HUPX, OPCOM, BSP, and HENEX showing significant midday weakness followed by pronounced peaks during evening hours (20-21). This phenomenon reflects the impacts of solar cannibalization alongside inadequate storage solutions across the region.
Hungary has solidified its position as a critical balancing hub within the regional market structure, evidenced by a sharp widening of the Hungarian-German day-ahead spread to approximately €3.8/MWh. This shift partially reverses previous convergence trends observed during periods with stronger renewable outputs in Central Europe.
Cross-border flow data indicates ongoing north-south balancing pressures; Romania exported about 1.36 GW, while Serbia’s net imports remained around 560 MW. Croatia also continued as a net importer at approximately 730 MW. Bulgaria’s exports toward Romania and Serbia remained robust, with Hungary also exporting significantly into Croatia and Serbia.
The forward markets showed signs of strengthening due to firmer fuel and carbon prices. The Hungarian Week 20 baseload price increased to €104.5/MWh, while Cal-26 traded near €114/MWh. EUA carbon allowances approached €75.7/t, and Austrian CEGH gas prices surpassed €49/MWh.
This upward trend in forward pricing supports favorable economic conditions for flexible thermal assets throughout SEE, especially during evening balancing periods. However, operational reliability concerns persist regarding regional thermal infrastructure. Bosnia’s RiTE Ugljevik reported a first-quarter loss of €18.3 million, attributed to prolonged outages linked to coal supply issues and delays in mining development efforts.
Additonally, Montenegro’s EPCG faced significant financial challenges with a projected net loss of €92.1 million for 2025 due to an extended environmental reconstruction outage at TPP Pljevlja that severely curtailed domestic generation capacity.
The hydropower sector in the Western Balkans continues to grapple with financing obstacles and execution delays. Bosnia’s HPP Dabar project has experienced substantial slowdowns following China Exim Bank’s suspension of financing due to unmet contractual milestones. Furthermore, ERS terminated the construction contract for HPP Mrsovo amid disputes over redesign requirements related to stricter flood protection standards.
<pIn Romania, authorities have initiated a proposed support mechanism worth €500 million aimed at biofuel production projects under the Modernization Fund framework, signaling an increased regional focus on decarbonization-linked industrial infrastructure rather than solely expanding conventional generation capabilities.
<pNegotiations surrounding NIS ownership restructuring remain closely monitored within Serbia's market landscape. Energy Minister Dubravka Djedovic indicated that discussions involving MOL and GazpromNeft might conclude by mid-May as they approach an OFAC licensing deadline later this month.
<pWeather forecasts suggest stable temperatures across most SEE markets in the coming days, which may limit immediate demand-side volatility; however, traders remain vigilant regarding potential fluctuations in renewable generation and evening balancing challenges as the region approaches its peak solar-output summer season.
<pThe overarching market narrative suggests a transition from traditional supply scarcity toward flexibility scarcity within SEE markets. While renewable penetration continues its rapid ascent, the pace of storage deployment, upgrades to interconnections, and development of balancing markets remains insufficient to absorb intraday renewable variability fully.
<pConsequently, regional markets are experiencing simultaneous midday oversupply pressures alongside evening scarcity pricing—reinforcing ongoing structural volatility across both spot and forward electricity curves.
