The 24 June 2026 trading session across the northern and central South-East Europe (SEE) corridor was defined by a clear episode of scarcity pricing, driven less by demand growth and more by a deterioration in renewable generation and a tightening of evening residual load conditions. While total consumption remained broadly stable, the structure of supply shifted in a way that exposed the system’s sensitivity to intraday imbalances and evening ramp risk.
In spot pricing, Hungary’s HUPX market rose sharply to €200.72/MWh, an increase of €27.7/MWh day-on-day, while Romania’s OPCOM also surged to €200.95/MWh, making it the highest-priced SEE market on a daily average basis. Germany remained elevated at €207.84/MWh, maintaining a negative HU-DE spread of -€7.12/MWh, which highlights that Hungary was still priced below Western Europe despite the regional spike. The broader price structure split SEE into two distinct clusters: a high-price northern and central corridor and a relatively softer southern zone.
The high-price group included Hungary, Romania, Slovenia and Croatia, with BSP Slovenia at €195.49/MWh and CROPEX Croatia at €196.36/MWh. Serbia followed with a more moderate but sharply rising level, as SEEPEX increased by €62.8/MWh to €156.14/MWh, marking one of the strongest daily upward moves in the region. In contrast, Bulgaria and Greece remained structurally cheaper at €141.66/MWh and €139.85/MWh, while Albania recorded the lowest regional price at €106.81/MWh. Montenegro also traded at a discount, with BELEN at €113.62/MWh, slightly lower on the day and significantly below the Hungarian benchmark.
The fundamental driver behind the rally was not demand expansion but a clear deterioration in renewable generation output. Total regional consumption remained almost unchanged at around 32,188 MW, rising only marginally by 30 MW day-on-day. However, the generation mix shifted materially. Wind output fell by 712 MW to 2,123 MW, while solar declined by 694 MW to 6,360 MW, reducing low-marginal-cost supply across the system. This shortfall forced a compensating increase in controllable generation, with gas rising by 745 MW to 5,383 MW, hydro increasing by 456 MW to 6,829 MW, and coal climbing by 301 MW to 4,868 MW, while nuclear output remained stable at 5,037 MW. The result was a classic residual-load squeeze, where flat demand combined with weaker renewables pushed thermal generation into the marginal price-setting position.
The most important signal, however, was not the daily average but the hourly volatility profile. Prices were not uniformly elevated across the day. HUPX recorded a low of approximately €60.7/MWh at hour H14, before surging dramatically to €604.8/MWh at H21. Similar evening spikes appeared across the region, with Germany reaching €665.8/MWh, Romania €601.4/MWh, and Slovenia €583.5/MWh. This confirms that the market was not structurally tight throughout the day; instead, it was dominated by a pronounced evening scarcity window, while midday remained comparatively softened by solar generation.
Cross-border flows reinforced the picture of tightening system conditions. The combined HU+SEE region was a net importer of 538 MW, an increase of 284 MW day-on-day, indicating growing reliance on external supply. Imports from the AT+SK corridor averaged 376 MW, slightly lower than the previous day, suggesting that congestion and internal imbalances were shaping flows as much as absolute availability. On a country level, Bulgaria and Greece remained significant exporters at around 1,066 MW and 1,050 MW, while Croatia imported 983 MW, Romania imported approximately 1,063 MW, Serbia imported around 479 MW, and Hungary imported about 357 MW. This uneven flow structure highlights a fragmented regional system where surplus generation in the south does not fully eliminate price pressure in the north due to transmission constraints and hourly mismatches.
Serbia’s market position is particularly notable within this structure. Although SEEPEX rose to €156.14/MWh, it remained approximately €44.6/MWh below HUPX, yet the strong €62.8/MWh daily increase shows that Serbia was not insulated from regional scarcity dynamics. Instead, it was pulled upward by the same evening price compression affecting Hungary, Romania and Croatia. With Serbia also positioned as a net importer, its pricing increasingly reflects regional marginal conditions rather than domestic surplus fundamentals, especially during high-volatility evening hours.
From a fuel and carbon perspective, the rally was not driven by upstream cost pressures. CEGH gas declined to €43.25/MWh, down €0.6/MWh, while EUAs fell to €80.71/t, down €0.9/t. Coal benchmarks remained relatively stable, with API2 Jul-26 at $115/t and Q3-26 at $113/t. Forward electricity markets also failed to fully replicate the spot spike, with Hungarian Week 27 falling to €132.50/MWh and Jul-26 rising only to €120.50/MWh. This divergence confirms that the move was primarily driven by short-term weather and renewable variability, rather than a structural repricing of fuel inputs.
The near-term outlook continues to support volatility. Temperature forecasts across SEE+HU show a steady increase from 24.4°C on 24 June to 27.4°C by 27 June, with Hungary approaching 29.7°C, Serbia 28.1°C, Croatia 27.5°C, and Montenegro reaching up to 30.9°C. Rising temperatures are expected to increase cooling-driven demand, particularly during evening hours when solar output declines and residual load tightens. Unless wind generation recovers or hydro dispatch and storage absorption smooths the evening ramp, pricing pressure is likely to remain concentrated in the H20–H22 window, while midday periods remain exposed to solar-driven compression.
The trading interpretation is therefore clear. The market is not experiencing uniform bullishness, but rather hour-specific scarcity, where value is increasingly concentrated in evening peak hours. Northern and central hubs such as HUPX, OPCOM, BSP Slovenia and CROPEX Croatia remain the primary premium nodes. Serbia is increasingly exposed to regional import pricing dynamics, Greece and Bulgaria continue to act as lower-price anchors, and Montenegro remains structurally import-dependent but less reactive on this particular day. For flexible assets such as batteries and pumped storage, the session offered significant value capture opportunities, with spreads between the €60/MWh midday low and €600/MWh evening peak highlighting one of the strongest intraday arbitrage environments in the recent trading period.
