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SEE electricity market Week 51: Prices surge amid higher demand and renewables drop

During Week 51 of 2025, electricity prices across Southeast Europe (SEE) rose sharply, registering double-digit increases in all markets except Italy and Türkiye. The surge was attributed to higher electricity demand and slightly elevated TTF gas futures compared to the previous week. Most SEE markets posted daily prices above €100/MWh, except Türkiye, resulting in a regional average of around €118/MWh. Prices opened the week at elevated levels, peaked on Thursday, December 18, and gradually stabilized at approximately €105/MWh toward the end of the week. Greece and Bulgaria recorded the highest week-on-week increases, at 24.81% and 17.95%, followed by Romania (17.95%) and Serbia (15.32%).

In Central Europe, weekly electricity prices surged in the third week of December, averaging around €96/MWh. Higher electricity demand compared to the previous week drove up market prices across all central European markets. Prices ranged from €69/MWh to €122/MWh, with Austria recording the highest average at €122.27/MWh, up 7.50% from Week 50, closely followed by Slovenia at €119.50/MWh. Conversely, France had the lowest price at €69.13/MWh, despite a 9.89% week-on-week rise.

The European wholesale electricity market averaged €109.62/MWh in Week 51, showing significant price dispersion across regions. Weekly prices ranged from €69.13/MWh in France to €130.56/MWh in Serbia. Iberian (MIBEL) markets saw moderate increases, with Spain and Portugal averaging €86.92/MWh, up around 6.25%. In Southern Europe, all SEE countries recorded prices above €100/MWh except Türkiye. Türkiye had the lowest weekly average at €59.27/MWh, while Italy was the second cheapest at €116.90/MWh, up 3.92%. Serbia led the region with the highest weekly average of €130.56/MWh, a 15.32% surge from the previous week. Romania and Bulgaria were also among the most expensive markets, at €129.90/MWh and €129.65/MWh, respectively. Daily price movements peaked on Thursday, December 18, while the lowest prices occurred on Sunday, December 21. As Week 52 began, wholesale prices showed a downward trend, with Day-Ahead prices on December 23 ranging from €103.69/MWh in Slovenia to €143.21/MWh in Albania.

Electricity demand across the SEE region grew by 2.37% week-on-week to 17,896.56 GWh. Average temperatures were cooler than the previous week in most markets. The demand increase was driven by higher consumption in Bulgaria and Italy, with Italy and Türkiye contributing most in absolute terms (+198.11 GWh and +106.83 GWh, respectively). Hungary was the only country with lower demand, decreasing by -1.60% compared to the previous week.

Variable renewable generation in SEE markets decreased significantly, falling 12.9% week-on-week to 1,742.52 GWh. The decline was driven by lower wind and solar output, with wind generation contracting by -10.2% to 1,072.40 GWh. Croatia (-46.8%) and Romania (-42.4%) saw the largest wind output reductions, while Serbia and Hungary recorded increases of 330.8% and 144.6%, respectively. Solar generation dropped by -16.9% to 670.13 GWh, mostly due to lower output in Italy (-38.5%) and Greece (-12.0%). Hydropower generation continued its downward trend, declining 1.44% week-on-week to 1,843.90 GWh, with the largest drops in Bulgaria, Greece, Hungary, and Romania. In contrast, Croatia and Serbia posted the highest hydropower increases, with Croatia increasing by 234.93%, highlighting the role of local hydrological conditions.

Thermal power generation in SEE markets rose moderately by 7.77% to 10,449.95 GWh. This growth was driven by higher coal and gas-fired production, with coal up 2.56% to 3,794.44 GWh and gas soaring 10.99% to 6,655.51 GWh. Country-level trends varied: Türkiye’s coal rose 2.82% and gas 8.01%; Bulgaria’s coal grew 13.96% while gas fell -0.58%; Greece saw coal rise 28.05% and gas 14.54%.

Cross-border electricity exchanges increased moderately, with net imports up 9.63% week-on-week to 1,590.20 GWh. Romania, Serbia, and Croatia posted higher net imports (+61.50%, +21.22%, and +8.50%), while Türkiye and Greece continued exporting. Greece’s net exports fell -25.96%, Türkiye’s rose 7.34%, and Bulgaria shifted to net imports of 78.20 GWh.

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