Bulgaria generated 24.11 TWh of electricity between 1 January and 19 July 2026, up 4.99% year on year. The increase coincided with higher renewable output and faster growth in domestic demand than total generation. Electricity consumption rose 6.83% to 22.84 TWh, according to transmission system operator ESO.
With production exceeding consumption, Bulgaria recorded net exports of approximately 1.27 TWh. Using the reported growth rates, the production surplus is estimated to have declined from roughly 1.58 TWh in the comparable 2025 period to 1.27 TWh in 2026. Demand growth therefore absorbed a larger share of domestic generation, leaving less volume for neighbouring markets.
Conventional generation declines as renewables rise across network levels
The generation mix also shifted during the period. Baseload coal and nuclear plants produced 15.21 TWh, down 9.35%. At the same time, renewables connected to the transmission network increased by 13.35% to 2,495.5 GWh.
Renewables connected to distribution networks rose by 4.63% to 2,365.4 GWh. Combined renewable output across both network levels reached approximately 4.86 TWh. That total corresponds to about 20% of Bulgaria’s overall electricity production.
Export profile depends on solar output timing
Bulgaria continues to export electricity to Greece, North Macedonia, Romania, Serbia and Turkey. The ability to sustain exports increasingly depends on the hour of demand and generation availability. Solar generation can support higher export volumes during daylight periods, while evening demand requires other sources.
Nuclear, coal and hydro generation, along with imports, are used to cover periods when photovoltaic output falls in the evening. The decline in baseload coal and nuclear output is commercially significant because it affects firm-generation availability during low-renewable hours. Lower coal and nuclear output may be linked to outages, maintenance, market displacement or operational constraints.
Narrower dependable surplus affects cross-border sales economics
The reported changes indicate a shift away from a simple baseload-export model for Bulgarian generators. Renewable expansion increases aggregate production, while stronger domestic consumption and lower conventional output reduce the dependable surplus available for exports. Cross-border capacity and flexible generation are key factors in converting renewable additions into sustained export revenue rather than lower midday prices.
