On March 18, 2026, the Southeast European (SEE) power market witnessed a notable decline in day-ahead prices, largely attributed to a resurgence in renewable energy generation and an uptick in thermal production. This shift came as net imports from Core Europe also increased, leading to widespread price corrections across nearly all SEE markets. Hungary’s HUPX market reported a clearing price of €103.13/MWh, reflecting a decrease of €34.1/MWh compared to the previous day. Other markets followed suit, with Romania at €94.35/MWh, Bulgaria at €92.55/MWh, Greece at €90.85/MWh, Serbia at €89.24/MWh, Croatia at €99.61/MWh, Slovenia at €101.27/MWh, and Montenegro at €90.35/MWh. Albania remained an outlier with a lower price of €62.97/MWh due to its hydro-heavy generation profile.
The underlying dynamics that drove this price correction were not linked to significant changes in demand but rather to an enhanced supply landscape. The average regional consumption remained relatively stable at 34,129 MW—just 40 MW higher than the previous day—while total generation rose to 35,440 MW, marking an increase of 2,656 MW day-on-day. Wind energy production surged by 1,969 MW to reach 3,404 MW, while gas-fired generation increased to 6,366 MW and coal output rose to 7,001 MW. Hydro generation also improved to 7,935 MW; however, solar output declined sharply by 1,420 MW to settle at 3,456 MW.
This combination of factors contributed to a more favorable base price across the region without significantly undermining peak-hour values. Notably, Hungary still recorded peak hourly prices reaching as high as €230/MWh while Romania and Bulgaria both peaked at €153.6/MWh. This trend reflects a common March pattern in Central and Southeastern Europe where increased midday renewable energy output compresses base prices while evening demand remains robust enough to sustain higher values for flexible resources such as hydro and gas peaking plants.
The cross-border trading landscape also shifted during this period, reinforcing the bearish sentiment in daily pricing trends. The region’s total net imports registered at -1,075 MW—an improvement of 277 MW compared to the previous day—while imports from Core Europe surged by 684 MW to reach 1,409 MW. The widening spread between Hungary and Germany (HU-DE) increased by €3.1/MWh to settle at €14.22/MWh during this session; this indicates that despite the regional sell-off in prices, Hungary and neighboring SEE markets remain attractive for western inflows.
Analysis of spread differentials reveals that Hungary continues to command a premium over most SEE markets with various reported differentials against HUPX: Romania at -€8.78/MWh; Bulgaria at -€10.58/MWh; Greece at -€12.27/MWh; Serbia at -€13.89/MWh; Montenegro at -€12.78/MWh; and Albania significantly lower at -€40.16/MWh compared to Hungary’s prices.
In Serbia specifically, the SEEPEX market price of €89.24/MWh represented a significant decrease of €20.3/MWh from the prior day and was approximately €14 below HUPX levels—a noteworthy discount given Serbia’s strategic position between tighter northern pricing and differentiated southern flows. Recent trading patterns indicate Serbia’s role as both a transit zone and balancing market within the broader regional context.
Montenegro is gaining attention not only for its current pricing but also for its evolving significance in regional transmission dynamics following financing announcements aimed at upgrading its electricity corridors with Albania and Bosnia and Herzegovina—potentially increasing capacity towards 600 MW.
Romania’s market dynamics are particularly intriguing as it reported a daily price of €94.35/MWh—lower than Hungary but above Serbia and Greece—with recent data indicating improvements in internal flexibility driven by rising hydropower (up 35%) and wind generation (up nearly 40%). These developments are bolstered by ENEVO’s partnership with Sungrow for battery storage deployment aimed at stabilizing intraday volatility.
From a commodity perspective, CEGH gas prices stood at €52.85/MWh—up slightly from the previous day—and forward contracts for Hungarian power remain firm despite mixed signals: Week 13 priced at €113/MWh while Week 14 was quoted lower at €101.5/MWh.
Mild weather conditions across SEE regions are expected to persist in the coming days with temperatures averaging around 10°C—indicating no immediate demand spikes due to cold weather conditions but rather maintaining focus on renewable availability and import capabilities.
The broader interpretation suggests that while day-ahead prices have decreased significantly due to improved supply conditions from renewables and imports from Core Europe—a softening rather than outright oversupply has occurred in the market dynamics.
Overall market sentiment remains cautious yet aware that with Italy’s pricing still above €150/MWh and evening peak caps remaining elevated across several hubs—the region retains its complexity characterized by both abundant supply during midday hours and noticeable scarcity during peak demand periods.
