Southeast Europe is witnessing a significant transformation in its gas market, driven by the increasing role of liquefied natural gas (LNG) as a key component of energy supply and pricing. This shift, which was largely unforeseen five years ago, highlights the region’s move towards a more integrated and diversified energy landscape.
The emerging structure of the LNG market in Southeast Europe is characterized by a dual-entry system, primarily anchored by Greece and Croatia. Greece has established itself as the main LNG gateway for the region, while Croatia’s Krk terminal serves as an essential entry point for Central Europe and parts of the Western Balkans. A critical factor determining the effectiveness of this new architecture is the inland transmission capacity, particularly through Bulgaria and Romania, which facilitates the movement of LNG from coastal terminals to continental demand centers.
Greece’s LNG system has evolved into a pivotal player in this reconfiguration. The country not only meets its domestic demand through LNG imports but also acts as a regional redistribution hub, exporting gas to Bulgaria and beyond. In 2023, Greece’s LNG imports reached approximately 29.95 TWh, accounting for 38% of its total gas supply. Overall gas demand, including exports, rose to around 78.75 TWh—a 14% increase compared to the previous year—illustrating Greece’s transition from an endpoint market to a significant trading node.
Infrastructure developments have been crucial in supporting this shift. The Revithoussa LNG terminal has long been essential for Greek gas imports but has been bolstered by the newly operational Alexandroupolis Floating Storage Regasification Unit (FSRU), which offers substantial regasification capacity of 136.2 GWh/day. Long-term bookings by various players have ensured that this capacity is actively utilized well into the next decade.
In terms of commercial activity, Greek companies such as DEPA and Shell are building extensive LNG portfolios that extend beyond national borders. Notably, long-term agreements for U.S. LNG volumes—potentially reaching up to 15 billion cubic meters annually over 20 years—are designed not only for Greece but also for broader distribution across the Balkans and into Central Europe.
Meanwhile, Croatia’s Krk terminal has seen its capacity expand from 3.9 bcm to 6.1 bcm per year, positioning it as a vital supply source for both Croatia and neighboring countries. Currently, over 60% of gas entering Croatia’s transmission system is sourced from Krk—a remarkable change for a market previously reliant on pipeline supplies.
The strategic importance of Krk lies in its connectivity with buyers across Slovenia and Hungary among others, making it a stable entry point within the regional network rather than merely a supplementary asset. This stability is further enhanced by high levels of commercial saturation at the terminal.
U.S. suppliers have emerged as dominant players in this new landscape; more than two-thirds of LNG cargoes entering Croatia since 2021 have originated from U.S. terminals, while over 86% of recent volumes in Greece can be traced back to U.S. sources. This trend underscores how global market dynamics are increasingly influencing Southeast Europe’s energy landscape.
However, challenges remain—particularly regarding inland transmission capacity that must be developed to facilitate efficient gas flow from Greece and Croatia into other parts of Southeast Europe and Central Europe. The Vertical Gas Corridor linking Greece with Bulgaria and Romania is set to become crucial in this context; infrastructure upgrades are expected to be completed by 2026 with expanded capacities made available through annual auctions.
For Serbia specifically, these developments represent a significant opportunity for diversification away from heavy reliance on pipeline gas supplied via TurkStream. The Bulgaria-Serbia interconnector allows access to LNG-linked supplies from Greece; Serbia has already secured contracts for up to 300 million cubic meters per year at Alexandroupolis over ten years—indicating a strategic shift towards enhancing its energy security.
The economic landscape remains competitive as Serbian entities navigate between LNG-derived supplies and traditional Russian pipeline gas—which often retains pricing advantages when transportation costs are taken into account. Rather than outright substitution, Serbia’s approach emphasizes maintaining multiple supply routes to mitigate risks associated with price volatility and supply disruptions.
Other countries in the region also exhibit varied progress towards integrating into this evolving market structure. North Macedonia is working on an interconnector with Greece that will provide direct access to LNG infrastructure within two years; conversely, Montenegro remains outside operational LNG frameworks despite ongoing discussions regarding potential projects.
Turkey’s role adds another layer of complexity; while it does not belong directly to the Western Balkans market structure, its regasification capabilities—around 150 million cubic meters per day—position it as an influential parallel hub that can impact regional supply dynamics significantly.
As Southeast Europe heads toward 2026, its LNG market will be defined not only by new infrastructure but also by how global supply interactions align with local constraints. While diversification efforts provide resilience against traditional single-source dependencies, they simultaneously expose markets to global price fluctuations driven by international events affecting major exporters like Qatar.
The evolving landscape suggests that flexibility will be key for stakeholders who manage terminal capacities and cross-border transmission rights effectively while building diversified supply portfolios. As Greece consolidates its role as a trading hub and Croatia enhances its northern gateway position alongside Bulgaria’s transit capabilities, Serbia serves as an important case study in integrating LNG within traditionally pipeline-dominated frameworks.
This transformation remains ongoing; infrastructure gaps persist alongside uneven regulatory alignment and shifting pricing dynamics within the sector. Nevertheless, it is evident that LNG is increasingly central to shaping Southeast Europe’s energy architecture—impacting flow patterns, pricing mechanisms, and investment strategies well into the next decade.
