In January 2026, South-East Europe’s electricity markets experienced a notable re-emergence of price divergence, reversing the convergence trend observed in late 2025. Average monthly prices fluctuated significantly across the region, with Romania and Hungary recording substantial rates of €150.51/MWh and €150.41/MWh, respectively. In contrast, Greece’s average price stood at €108.67/MWh, while Türkiye reported an even lower average of €57.42/MWh. This disparity underscores the ongoing structural segmentation within the region’s electricity pricing despite existing physical interconnections.
The observed price divergence cannot be attributed solely to demand variations, as regional consumption patterns showed uneven growth. Serbia led the increase with a month-on-month growth of +33.43%, followed by Croatia at +22.42%, and Bulgaria at +17.51%. Meanwhile, Hungary and Romania exhibited more restrained consumption changes. The pricing behavior appeared largely influenced by marginal supply conditions, fuel exposure, and import elasticity rather than demand alone.
Romania and Hungary defined the upper limits of market prices during this period, both facing challenges such as decreased hydro availability and increased reliance on gas-linked marginal pricing alongside heightened imports during peak demand hours. Specifically, Romania’s average price was influenced by a -16.04% decline in hydro generation, while Hungary’s pricing reflected a system reliant on 34.03% net imports, despite robust nuclear output.
<pConversely, Greece managed to escape the regional price hikes due to a significant increase in hydro generation by +155.37%, which effectively displaced gas from the marginal supply stack and mitigated exposure to TTF volatility. Serbia similarly benefited from a surge in hydro generation of +186.06%, which helped stabilize its prices amid strong demand growth.
This divergence in January highlights an essential characteristic of South-East Europe’s power markets: they do not converge uniformly under stress conditions. Instead, the market dynamics reveal a hierarchy where gas- and import-dependent systems are prone to sharp repricing, while those rich in hydro resources can temporarily decouple from wider trends.
The developments in January emphasize the necessity for market participants to view South-East Europe as a complex multi-node risk environment rather than a singular convergence block when strategizing their operational approaches.
