Day-ahead electricity prices across Southeast Europe moved sharply in different directions on Thursday, with Serbia and Montenegro recording strong gains while Hungary remained one of the region’s most expensive markets despite a significant decline in German power prices.
Hungary’s HUPX day-ahead price fell by €9.5/MWh to €196.57/MWh, while Romania’s OPCOM settled slightly higher at €196.82/MWh. Bulgaria and Greece both cleared at €192.88/MWh, followed by Slovenia at €191.46/MWh and Croatia at €190.55/MWh.
Serbia’s SEEPEX, however, moved in the opposite direction, rising by €11.9/MWh to €184.92/MWh, while Montenegro’s BELEN gained €12.7/MWh to €184.47/MWh. Albania recorded the largest decline in the region, with prices falling by €30.2/MWh to €173.67/MWh, close to North Macedonia at €173.49/MWh.
The widening gap between regional markets came as Germany’s day-ahead price dropped by €30.1/MWh to €133.62/MWh, leaving Hungarian prices almost €63/MWh higher. Italy remained the most expensive market in the regional comparison, with prices reaching €212.46/MWh.
Electricity flows from Central Europe into the region increased, but they were not sufficient to eliminate the large price differences. Combined imports from Austria and Slovakia into the Hungary-Slovenia area rose by around 795 MW to 3,832 MW, while total regional net imports increased slightly to 2,730 MW.
Regional electricity demand rose by 226 MW to 33,443 MW, while the generation mix shifted. Hydro output increased to 5,212 MW and wind generation climbed to 1,360 MW. At the same time, solar production fell to 6,642 MW and gas-fired generation declined to 4,960 MW, while coal output remained broadly stable at 6,989 MW.
The market developments suggest that Thursday’s price divergence was driven primarily by cross-border flows and transmission congestion, rather than an overall shortage of electricity across Southeast Europe.
Serbia remained a net importer, with average generation of approximately 3,174 MW compared with consumption of 3,676 MW, resulting in a deficit of around 502 MW. Despite this, commercial electricity flows from Serbia towards Hungary increased significantly, with base-load flows reaching approximately 371 MW compared with just 56 MW a day earlier. Off-peak exports towards Hungary averaged around 744 MW.
Serbia continued to import electricity from Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia and Bulgaria while simultaneously sending power north towards the higher-priced Hungarian market. This trading pattern helped support SEEPEX prices even though domestic electricity demand declined compared with the previous day.
Montenegro experienced a similar situation. The country remained a net importer of around 106 MW but continued to export approximately 345 MW towards Italy, where electricity prices were nearly €28/MWh higher than on BELEN. Montenegro was meanwhile importing electricity from Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia.
Hungary’s domestic electricity balance also tightened despite the decline in HUPX prices. Consumption increased to approximately 4,749 MW, while domestic generation fell to around 3,482 MW, pushing net imports to roughly 1,267 MW.
Romania also remained dependent on imports, with consumption reaching approximately 5,898 MW while generation slipped to around 4,719 MW. This resulted in net imports of about 1,180 MW, with substantial electricity inflows from Hungary and Bulgaria helping keep Romanian prices closely aligned with HUPX.
Bulgaria remained a significant electricity exporter, producing around 5,001 MW against consumption of 3,952 MW, while Greece also maintained a surplus position.
As a result, the regional market remained clearly divided, with Hungary and Romania trading close to €197/MWh, Bulgaria, Greece, Slovenia and Croatia ranging between €190/MWh and €193/MWh, Serbia and Montenegro trading near €185/MWh, and Albania and North Macedonia remaining below €174/MWh.
Hungarian forward prices also remained elevated, with October electricity indicated at around €200/MWh. The October Hungary-Germany forward spread stood at approximately €44.50/MWh, considerably below the much wider spot market differential recorded on Thursday.
The latest trading session highlights the growing importance of cross-border capacity in Southeast European electricity markets. Cheaper electricity from Germany continues to struggle to fully reach Hungary and neighbouring markets, while Hungary’s price premium is encouraging additional electricity flows from Serbia and other countries in the region.
For electricity traders, the main risk remains persistent transmission congestion, which could continue to support wide price differences between neighbouring markets even when regional generation conditions improve.
