Greece’s planned offshore wind programme could cut gas-fired electricity generation by 30% and reduce power-system operating costs, according to a study by the Hellenic Hydrocarbons and Energy Resources Management Company and consultancy Exergia. The research found that offshore wind could halve annual operating costs. It also estimated renewable curtailment could be up to four times lower than under alternative development pathways.
The researchers assessed Greece’s 3.9 GW offshore wind target against scenarios that relied more heavily on solar and onshore wind. One alternative required an additional 6.8 GW of solar and 2.2 GW of onshore wind. A second envisaged 9.2 GW of additional solar and 0.6 GW of onshore wind, reflecting limits on sites available for further land-based wind development.
Costs and generation profiles
Although offshore wind has higher construction costs, the study found it could remain economically competitive if electricity from the projects is priced at between €123 and €160/MWh. A key factor is the generation profile of the different technologies. Large additions of solar can produce substantial surpluses during high-output hours, pushing down wholesale prices and increasing curtailment.
The study put the resulting solar price-cannibalisation effect at €24.5/MWh. Offshore wind could ease that pressure by providing a more diversified production profile. The analysis therefore considered the planned offshore wind programme alongside alternative mixes of solar and onshore wind.
Energy-crisis stress test
Researchers also tested the scenarios against an energy crisis comparable to that of 2022, assumed to occur once every five years. Offshore wind remained economically attractive at €160/MWh in that scenario. Savings elsewhere in the system offset its higher generation costs.
The analysis suggests Greece could potentially develop offshore wind without additional public subsidies. That outcome depends on the assumed market and system conditions being achieved.
