Greece is poised to enhance its role in the regional gas market significantly over the next decade, as indicated by a recent forecast from the national gas transmission operator, DESFA. This analysis covers anticipated gas flows through Greece’s transmission network and liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities from 2026 to 2035, illustrating the country’s evolving energy landscape.
Since 2022, the natural gas sector has faced increasing unpredictability due to geopolitical tensions, energy transition policies, and fluctuating market dynamics. These factors have complicated long-term planning for stakeholders within the industry, emphasizing the need for adaptive strategies in response to an uncertain operational environment.
According to DESFA’s baseline scenario, domestic gas demand in Greece is projected to reach approximately 6 billion cubic meters (bcm) by 2026. This figure is expected to gradually rise, peaking at around 7.1 bcm in 2033 before stabilizing through 2035. Concurrently, Greece’s export capabilities are forecasted to remain robust, with outbound volumes estimated between 1.3 and 3.8 bcm in 2026, increasing to a range of 1.9 to 3.5 bcm towards the end of this period.
The demand for gas-fired power generation is anticipated to continue being a foundational element throughout the decade. This trend persists despite the ongoing growth of renewable energy sources. The resilience of gas-fired generation is largely attributed to sustained electricity exports that reinforce the operational viability of combined-cycle gas turbine plants within Greece’s National Energy and Climate Plan.
Additionally, DESFA projects growth across various market segments. There will be an increase in consumption through distribution networks as local operators work to extend access to new regions. Demand from significant industrial and commercial consumers connected to high-pressure systems is also expected to rebound following a notable decline caused by extreme gas prices during 2022–2023.
The outlook further identifies considerable growth potential in small-scale LNG operations, particularly in truck loading and satellite LNG services. Overall, this forecast suggests that Greece will not only solidify its status as a major gas consumer but also emerge as a vital transit and export hub, connecting LNG imports and regional pipeline flows with markets throughout southeastern and central Europe amidst an evolving energy landscape.
