Greece cleared at an average of approximately €116.50/MWh, with a minimum around €25/MWh and a maximum near €174/MWh. Unlike the previous session, when HEnEx reached zero during a solar-heavy interval, the latest curve avoided a clearly negative settlement.
The absence of negative prices does not remove the underlying problem. Greek solar output continues to compress the value of daytime generation, while gas units determine the marginal price during morning and evening periods.
Greece can export northwards through Bulgaria and North Macedonia when solar production is strong. Those flows can reverse as photovoltaic generation falls and Greek gas plants become more expensive. Transmission value therefore changes direction within the same day.
Curtailment remains an increasingly important project-finance variable. A solar plant’s annual energy yield may remain technically unchanged while its commercially saleable output declines because the system cannot absorb production during saturated hours. Lenders must distinguish weather-related yield loss from dispatch-related curtailment and price-driven economic shutdown.
A conventional solar PPA based on fixed annual volume can also create imbalance exposure where curtailment, negative prices or grid instructions prevent delivery. New contracts increasingly require hourly shaping, storage integration, floor-price provisions and explicit allocation of curtailment risk.
