After the rise in prices at the beginning of the year due to the low temperatures registered during the cold snap in northern Europe and low wind energy production, prices have fallen in the electricity markets. In the week of January 15, prices in almost all main European electricity markets fell compared to the previous week. This represented a reversal of the upward trend registered in most markets over the past two weeks. The exception was the Nord Pool market of the Nordic countries, with an increase of 2.5%.
On the other hand, the MIBEL market of Spain and Portugal reached the largest percentage price declines, which were 31% and 32%, respectively. In contrast, the IPEX market of Italy registered the smallest decline, 11%. In the rest of the markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices fell between 13% in the N2EX market of the United Kingdom and 17% in the EPEX SPOT market of France.
In the third week of January, weekly averages were below €90/MWh in almost all analyzed European electricity markets. The exception was the Italian market, which registered the highest average, €96.16/MWh. On the other hand, the Portuguese and Spanish markets had the lowest weekly prices, €66.25/MWh and €66.75/MWh, respectively. In the rest of the analyzed markets, prices ranged from €77.93/MWh in the Nordic market to €86.56/MWh in the British market.
During the week of January 15, the decline in gas prices, whose weekly average has not stopped falling since November, exerted its downward influence on European electricity market prices. CO2 emission rights prices also continued the declines of previous weeks. The increase in wind energy production during the third week of January, as well as the decline in electricity demand in some markets, also contributed to the price declines in European electricity markets.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts indicate that in the fourth week of January, prices might continue their downward trend in the EPEX SPOT market. Increases in wind energy production will continue in markets such as Germany and France, favouring this behaviour. On the other hand, in the British, Iberian and Italian markets, prices might increase again.
