Brent crude oil futures for the front-month contract on the ICE market recorded their weekly low settlement price of $71.99/bbl on Monday, July 6, remaining almost unchanged compared with the previous Friday. Prices then recovered throughout the week, reaching a weekly high of $78.02/bbl on July 8 before slightly declining during the final two trading sessions. By Friday, July 10, the settlement price stood at $76.01/bbl, which was 5.4% higher than the previous Friday’s level, according to data analysed by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.
The rebound in Brent oil prices during the second week of July was mainly driven by renewed tensions between the United States and Iran. Both countries carried out new military actions during the weekend before the start of the week, increasing concerns over potential disruptions to maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important energy transport routes, handling around 20% of global oil and gas trade. Although diplomatic and technical discussions between Washington and Tehran continued, the geopolitical uncertainty maintained a risk premium in crude oil prices.
Natural gas prices also moved higher during the week. TTF gas futures for the front-month contract on the ICE market reached their weekly minimum settlement price of €44.13/MWh on Monday, July 6, 2.4% below the previous Friday’s level. Prices then increased steadily, reaching a weekly peak of €50.10/MWh on Thursday, July 9, the highest level since May 20. On Friday, July 10, the settlement price eased slightly to €48.66/MWh, but remained 7.6% above the previous Friday’s value.
The increase in European gas prices was also linked to heightened geopolitical risks surrounding the Middle East. Escalating tensions between the United States and Iran raised concerns about possible disruptions to liquefied natural gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, increasing uncertainty over global LNG supply availability. Prices moderated slightly at the end of the week as signs emerged that diplomatic discussions were continuing, although European gas storage levels remained below their five-year seasonal average, providing continued support for prices above €48/MWh.
Meanwhile, CO₂ emission allowance futures for the December 2026 reference contract traded on the EEX market recorded their weekly high on Monday, July 6, reaching €81.81/t. This represented a 1.5% increase compared with the previous Friday’s level and marked the highest price since February 5. Prices then declined, reaching the weekly low of €79.04/t on July 8. By Friday, July 10, the settlement price stood at €79.21/t, 1.7% below the previous Friday’s value.
Overall, energy commodity markets during the second week of July were shaped by geopolitical uncertainty, LNG supply risks and European gas market fundamentals. While oil and gas prices gained support from Middle East tensions, carbon prices remained relatively stable after reaching their highest levels in several months, AleaSoft reports.
