In Week 24 of 2025, natural gas prices in Europe surged amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The escalation began after Israel launched a series of strikes on Iran, sparking fears of a broader conflict in a region critical to global energy supplies. This unrest, coupled with forecasts of high temperatures and reduced wind energy production in Europe, as well as potential supply disruptions from Norway, pushed gas and oil prices higher across energy markets.
TTF gas futures for July 2025 delivery on the ICE market showed a mixed trend during the second week of June. Prices started the week lower, hitting a minimum settlement price of €34.638/MWh on June 10, down 2.4% from the previous day and 3.4% compared to the previous week. However, prices climbed steadily throughout the week, reaching a peak settlement price of €37.894/MWh on June 13—4.7% higher than the day before and 4.5% higher than the previous Friday. The weekly average settled at €36.045/MWh, slightly up 0.6% from Week 23.
Dutch wholesale gas prices dipped on Tuesday as warmer temperatures reduced demand and supply remained stable, but a strong heatwave in Europe by Friday pushed prices back up by the end of the week. As the article went to press, the one-month forward contract at TTF traded near €39.885/MWh ($12.63/MMBtu).
A focal point of concern in the crisis is the Strait of Hormuz, a vital maritime corridor where over 20% of the world’s oil supply passes daily. Any threat to this narrow passage, which handled around 20 million barrels per day of crude oil and refined products in 2023, significantly impacts global energy markets. Most of this volume, about 70%, is destined for Asia, with China, India, and Japan as major consumers. While alternative overland routes such as Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline and the UAE’s Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline exist, their combined capacity of 4.2 million barrels per day is only about a quarter of the typical daily volume through the Strait.
Liquefied natural gas (LNG) markets are even more vulnerable. All LNG exports from Qatar, the world’s second-largest LNG exporter, and the UAE pass through the Strait of Hormuz. In 2023, approximately 90 billion cubic meters of LNG—20% of global LNG trade—transited this route in the first ten months alone. With no viable alternatives, any closure or disruption would severely tighten global LNG supply chains. Around 80% of this LNG is destined for Asia, while Europe receives about 20%, intensifying regional competition for scarce resources amid already tight markets.
Dozens of tankers navigate the Strait of Hormuz simultaneously, transporting crude oil and gas from Middle Eastern producers to global markets. Any disruption here would impact millions of barrels daily, potentially exacerbating the fragile global energy supply situation.
