During mid-December 2025, European natural gas prices continued their downward trajectory, approaching around €27/MWh, near levels not seen since early 2024. Despite minor daily upticks, this reflects a 10.10% decline over the past month, a 33.46% drop compared to December 2024, and a year-to-date fall of roughly 45%. Remarkably, prices have plummeted more than 90% from the record highs observed during the 2022 energy crisis.
TTF gas futures for January 2026 delivery on the ICE market traded lower during the second week of December compared to Week 49 of 2025, hovering around €27/MWh. On Wednesday, December 10, prices fell -3.2% from the previous day, hitting the week’s lowest settlement of €26.602/MWh, down -5.7% from the previous Wednesday. Prices then trended upward, reaching a weekly high of €27.684/MWh on Friday, December 12, up 3.3% from the previous day and 1.5% higher than the prior Friday. The weekly average settlement price stood at €27.0902/MWh, -2.4% below Week 49.
Market fundamentals supported this trend. Record U.S. LNG exports, combined with steady Norwegian supply, helped offset reduced Russian deliveries. U.S. shipments accounted for roughly 56% of Europe’s LNG imports in 2025, aided by comparatively weak demand from Asia. Meanwhile, U.S.-brokered talks involving Ukraine and Russia raised hopes of ending the three-year conflict, potentially paving the way for easing EU sanctions on Russian energy. Warmer-than-average temperatures also reduced heating demand, though EU gas storage remained 72% full as of December 7, below the 90% target set by the European Commission.
EU plans to phase out Russian natural gas imports by 2027 are creating tensions among member states, with varying impacts depending on gas dependency and access to LNG. Hungary and Slovakia, heavily reliant on pipeline gas and landlocked, have considered legal challenges, as they cannot easily access LNG imports. Other countries with high gas reliance include Italy, the United Kingdom, Ukraine, Hungary, and the Netherlands, with Italy sourcing 38% of its energy from natural gas in 2024. Overall, six major European nations rely on gas for 30% or more of total energy supply, justifying resistance to measures threatening their power generation and industrial output. According to Eurostat, natural gas represented 21% of EU gross inland consumption in 2023.
Geography further complicates LNG access. Among Europe’s ten most gas-dependent economies, nine have direct access to seaports for LNG imports, while Hungary, as a fully landlocked country, cannot build an LNG terminal. Slovakia faces similar constraints, which explains their opposition to the EU’s Russian gas phase-out plan.
To fully replace Russian pipeline supplies, Europe must remain a significant LNG importer. So far in 2025, European LNG imports surpassed 284 billion cubic meters (bcm), setting a record and representing a 23% increase compared to 2024, according to Kpler.
