In the second week of November, Brent oil futures for the Front Month in the ICE market experienced fluctuations, starting with a 2.8% decline from the previous week’s last session. On Monday, November 11, the settlement price was $71.83 per barrel. Prices increased slightly over the next few days, reaching their weekly peak of $72.56 on Thursday, November 14. However, on Friday, November 15, a 2.1% drop led to a weekly minimum settlement of $71.04 per barrel, marking a 3.8% decrease compared to the previous Friday and the lowest level since September 12. Overall, the average settlement price for the week was 4.1% lower than the prior week.
During the same week, OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA) revised their oil demand growth forecasts downward for 2024 and 2025. The IEA slightly raised its global demand forecast for 2024, although it remained below OPEC’s projection. Continued concerns about demand in China, as well as expectations of fewer interest rate cuts in the United States and a stronger dollar, put additional downward pressure on oil prices.
In the natural gas market, Front-Month TTF gas futures in the ICE market saw a general upward trend, except on November 13 when prices dropped to their weekly low of €43.67 per MWh. By Friday, November 15, prices reached their weekly high of €46.55 per MWh, a 9.8% increase compared to the previous Friday. The price rise was influenced by several factors, including concerns about the early depletion of European gas reserves, which raised fears about refilling challenges ahead of summer 2025. Additionally, forecasts of colder temperatures and the ongoing uncertainty around Russian gas supplies, particularly the disruption of flows to Austria since November 16, contributed to the increase in gas prices.
Regarding CO2 emission allowances, futures for the December 2024 contract on the EEX market initially saw a decline during the second week of November, reaching their weekly minimum price of €66.31 per ton on November 13. However, prices rebounded with a 3.0% increase on November 14, peaking at €68.27 per ton, the highest price since September 3. On Friday, November 15, the price settled at €68.01 per ton, just €0.01 lower than the previous Friday. Despite the fluctuations, the weekly average for CO2 futures was 3.2% higher than the prior week.
In summary, while Brent oil prices showed a downward trend, gas and CO2 emissions prices saw increases in the second week of November, driven by concerns about supply disruptions and seasonal weather impacts.
