A recent analysis by the think tank Ember projects that natural gas consumption in the European Union will decline by 7 percent by 2030. This expected decrease is being driven by the rapid expansion of renewable energy sources and a broader shift toward electrification across member states.
Ember’s review of national energy strategies from EU countries indicates that gas demand will drop from 326 billion cubic meters in 2023 to approximately 302 billion cubic meters by the end of the decade. This follows an earlier decline, with gas consumption already having fallen by 19 percent between 2019 and 2023, from 404 billion cubic meters to current levels.
Despite the downward trend in demand, the EU is still pursuing plans to significantly expand its liquefied natural gas (LNG) import capacity—by more than 50 percent by 2030. This strategy is part of ongoing efforts to eliminate dependency on Russian pipeline gas. However, Ember’s report cautions that this could result in an oversupply of gas, leading to underutilized infrastructure and creating the risk of stranded assets.
At the same time, EU member states are making a strong push to scale up renewable energy. Wind and solar power capacity is expected to double within the next five years, and projections suggest that renewable sources will generate about two-thirds of the EU’s electricity by 2030. In addition, the share of electricity in the EU’s total final energy consumption is projected to rise from 23 percent today to 30 percent by the end of the decade.
The report emphasizes that the EU is steadily transitioning toward an electrified economy. It warns that continued large-scale investments in gas infrastructure may no longer align with the region’s energy future, and could lead to unnecessary financial strain. Ember urges industry leaders, investors, and policymakers to ensure their decisions reflect this changing landscape.
