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Europe: Brent oil declines, TTF gas rises amid supply disruptions, CO2 prices hold above €70 in late May

Brent oil futures for the Front Month on the ICE market reached their highest settlement price of the week on Monday, May 19, at $65.54 per barrel. After that, prices declined, hitting the weekly low of $64.44 per barrel on Thursday, May 22. By Friday, May 23, prices had slightly recovered by 0.5 percent from the previous day, settling at $64.78 per barrel. However, this price was still 1.0 percent lower than the previous Friday, according to data from AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.

The decline in Brent prices was influenced by expectations of possible production increases from OPEC+. Additionally, concerns about demand due to U.S. tariff policies continued to apply downward pressure during the fourth week of May.

In the case of TTF gas futures for the Front Month on the ICE market, the lowest settlement price of the week was recorded on Monday, May 19, at €35.22 per megawatt-hour. Prices then rose by 5.0 percent on Tuesday, May 20, reaching the weekly high of €36.98 per megawatt-hour. This marked the highest value since April 8. Although prices dipped slightly in the following sessions, they remained above €36 per megawatt-hour for the rest of the week. On Friday, May 23, the settlement price stood at €36.45 per megawatt-hour, which was 3.7 percent higher than the previous Friday.

The upward pressure on TTF gas prices was mainly driven by supply disruptions, including scheduled maintenance at several Norwegian gas fields and an unplanned partial outage at the Troll field, which reduced gas flow from Norway.

Regarding CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the December 2025 reference contract, prices stayed above €70 per ton throughout the fourth week of May. The lowest settlement price was €70.42 per ton on Monday, May 19. The highest was reached on Tuesday, May 20, at €73.18 per ton. After that, prices began to decline slightly, ending the week at €71.56 per ton on Friday. Despite the drop, this value was still 0.8 percent higher than the previous Friday, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, AleaSoft reports.

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