The European Commission is preparing a new long-term electrification strategy focused on reducing Europe’s reliance on imported fossil fuels, strengthening energy security and supporting industrial competitiveness. The strategy is scheduled for presentation on 17 July 2026, with the accompanying legislative framework expected in the fourth quarter of 2026 as part of the EU’s post-2030 climate and energy package.
Electrification is expected to be one of the central tools supporting the EU objective of cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 90% by 2040 compared with 1990 levels. A final electrification target has not yet been disclosed. The Commission estimates that broader electricity use could eventually replace around two-thirds of current natural gas consumption and reduce oil demand by approximately 50%.
Fuel import outlook and external fossil-energy bill
The Commission estimates that lower fuel imports could reduce the EU’s external fossil-energy bill by around €200 billion by the end of the next decade. The calculation is described as giving the strategy broader industrial and balance-of-payments significance. This comes after several years in which European manufacturers faced higher energy costs than competitors in the United States and parts of Asia.
Electricity currently accounts for only around 23% of final energy consumption in the EU. At the same time, about 70% of European power generation already comes from domestic low-carbon sources. The electrification rate remains below levels in China, Japan and South Korea, where electricity represents more than 30% of final energy use.
Support measures for industry, transport and ports
The Commission is considering targeted support for industrial electrification, with potential financing through revenues generated by the EU Emissions Trading System. Other measures under discussion include additional electric-vehicle charging infrastructure. The Commission is also examining greater deployment of electric heavy-duty vehicles.
In parallel, ports are being considered for transformation into clean-energy and electrification hubs. These elements are part of a wider set of policy discussions aimed at expanding electricity use across sectors.
Heat-pump incentives and implications for gas demand
Buildings are identified as another major component of the programme. New incentives could accelerate heat-pump installations, reflecting that buildings account for roughly half of EU natural gas consumption. Electrification of industrial heat and residential heating would therefore affect gas demand, network loads and the seasonal pattern of European electricity consumption.
The shift toward electrified heating is linked to changes in how electricity demand develops across seasons. It also connects sectoral fuel switching with grid operations and planning needs.
Investment needs and grid constraints under post-2030 policy
The strategy would require substantially higher investment in generation capacity, electricity networks, storage and flexible demand. Grid availability is expected to become a principal constraint for scaling up renewables and electrification. New renewable generation and industrial electrification cannot progress at the required pace without faster permitting and stronger transmission and distribution infrastructure.
The Commission is also considering changes to energy taxation alongside a gradual removal of fossil-fuel subsidies after 2030. The policy direction would create a larger investment market for renewable generation, batteries, grid equipment, heat pumps, charging infrastructure and industrial electrical systems. It would also shift a growing share of Europe’s energy-security risk to performance of its electricity networks.
