In the second week of May 2026, energy commodities in Europe saw notable increases, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and supply-side risks. Brent crude oil futures, traded on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), recorded a weekly minimum settlement price of $104.21 per barrel on May 11. This marked the beginning of a consistent upward trend, as prices remained above $105 per barrel throughout the week, culminating in a weekly maximum settlement price of $109.26 per barrel by May 15. This increase represented a significant rise of 7.9% compared to the previous week’s closing figures.
The surge in oil prices has been attributed to a combination of geopolitical factors, particularly the ongoing tensions surrounding Iran and its interaction with the United States. The U.S. rejection of Iran’s peace proposal heightened concerns regarding potential disruptions in oil supply, particularly through critical transit routes like the Strait of Hormuz. The prevailing uncertainty around ceasefire prospects further bolstered bullish sentiment within crude oil markets.
Similarly, the European gas market experienced upward momentum during this period. TTF natural gas futures also traded on ICE saw their weekly minimum settlement price at €46.23 per megawatt-hour (MWh) on May 11, followed by a steady increase that led to a maximum price of €50.17/MWh by May 15. This figure not only reflected a 14% rise from the previous Friday but also represented the highest pricing level since early April.
The rise in gas futures can be traced back to stalled negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, which have perpetuated fears over potential supply disruptions through vital channels like the Strait of Hormuz. Additionally, tight European gas storage conditions have compounded these concerns, with average storage levels reported below 40%, while several countries remain under 25% capacity. Such conditions have made the market particularly sensitive to any signs of supply risk.
In terms of emissions trading, CO₂ allowance futures for December 2026 reached their weekly maximum settlement price at €77.17 per tonne on May 11—this was noted as the highest level since mid-April. Throughout that week, prices generally held above €75 per tonne despite experiencing fluctuations; a minimum price was recorded at €75.07 per tonne on May 13 before slightly recovering towards week’s end.
By May 15, CO₂ futures settled at €75.62 per tonne, indicating a modest weekly increase of 0.6%. The market exhibited stability interspersed with fluctuations influenced by broader energy market sentiments and expectations related to industrial demand dynamics and fuel switching behaviors.
