In the third week of January, electricity prices across various major European markets displayed a mixed performance, with many markets experiencing upward trends despite remaining below the levels recorded at the start of the previous week. The weekly average prices fell in most regions compared to the prior week, with notable exceptions. Specifically, the EPEX SPOT market in France saw a price increase of 2.1%, while Italy’s IPEX market surged by 14%. The Iberian market (MIBEL) reported substantial gains of 40% and 41% for Spain and Portugal, respectively. In contrast, the Nord Pool market covering Nordic countries faced a significant decline of 11%, alongside other markets such as Belgium and the Netherlands, which recorded decreases between 1.5% and 4.6%, as reported by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.
For the week ending January 12, most European markets registered weekly average prices exceeding €100/MWh, with the Nordic market being an outlier at €91.43/MWh. Italy led with a peak average of €136.13/MWh, while France and Portugal reported averages of €103.23/MWh and €110.43/MWh, respectively.
Daily price fluctuations also highlighted disparities among markets. The Nordic market recorded its lowest daily average price of €80.16/MWh on January 16, while markets in the UK, Spain, France, the Netherlands, and Portugal experienced at least one day with prices falling below €90/MWh during that week.
Conversely, all analyzed markets saw daily prices exceeding €100/MWh at least once during this period. Germany maintained prices above this threshold throughout the week, while Italy’s daily rates surpassed €125/MWh, peaking at €144.98/MWh on January 15—the highest daily average observed among all markets analyzed. Additionally, on January 17, the Iberian market reached a notable price of €127.24/MWh, marking its highest daily figure since February 18, 2025.
The dynamics affecting these price movements included increased solar energy production in Germany and reduced electricity demand in Belgium, the UK, and the Netherlands—factors contributing to price declines in those regions. Conversely, rising gas prices and CO₂ emission allowances combined with lower wind output resulted in increased electricity costs in Spain, France, Italy, and Portugal. Furthermore, heightened demand coupled with diminished solar generation in Spain and its neighboring countries further propelled price increases.
Looking ahead to the fourth week of January, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting anticipates that electricity prices will generally rise across most major European markets due to factors such as increased demand and decreased wind production in Germany and France alongside reduced solar output in Italy. However, it is expected that higher solar generation levels in Spain along with increased wind production on the Iberian Peninsula may counteract these trends by supporting price declines specifically within the MIBEL market.
