In the third week of January, Brent oil futures on the ICE market demonstrated a continued upward trajectory, peaking at a settlement price of $66.52 per barrel on January 14. This marked the highest level for Brent since October 1, 2025. However, the market experienced a correction with a subsequent drop of 4.1% the following day, resulting in a weekly low of $63.76 per barrel on January 15. By January 16, prices made a slight recovery to $64.13 per barrel, reflecting an increase of 1.2% compared to the previous week’s close.
The fluctuations in Brent prices were largely influenced by ongoing concerns regarding supply disruptions stemming from instability in Iran. Statements from U.S. leadership that alleviated fears of military escalation in the region contributed to the decline observed mid-week.
TTF gas futures also saw significant gains during this period, with prices rising from a weekly minimum of €30.25 per MWh on January 12 to a maximum of €36.88 per MWh by January 16—a notable increase of 30% compared to the previous Friday’s figures and marking the highest price since June 24, 2025.
This surge in TTF gas futures was bolstered by forecasts predicting lower temperatures towards the end of January, alongside European storage levels hovering around 50%. Additional factors included disruptions to U.S. LNG exports and heightened demand expectations in Asia due to cold weather conditions.
In terms of carbon pricing, CO₂ emission allowance futures for December 2026 contracts on the EEX market began the week at €90.11 per ton on January 12, reflecting an increase of 0.6% from the prior Friday. The upward trend persisted throughout the week, reaching a peak of €92.24 per ton on January 15—the highest price recorded since at least December 29, 2023—before settling slightly lower at €92.04 per ton on January 16, still representing a rise of 2.8% from the previous week.
This week’s developments highlight a broader trend of increasing energy and carbon prices driven by geopolitical uncertainties, changing weather patterns, and tight supply-demand dynamics across global markets.
